HomeNewsContrasting Investment Patterns: ETF Outflows vs. Custodial Wallet Accumulations in Bitcoin

Contrasting Investment Patterns: ETF Outflows vs. Custodial Wallet Accumulations in Bitcoin

- Advertisement -
  • Custodial wallets accumulate 85K Bitcoin in 30 days, contrasting with 16K BTC outflow from ETF holdings.
  • Fractal analysis predicts Bitcoin price trends, using historical cycles and ‘years ahead of support’ metric for scaling.

Bitcoin continues to captivate market watchers with its recent performance and the unique investment patterns around it. Over the last 30 days, specific custodial wallets known for holding their assets permanently have accumulated an additional 85,000 Bitcoins.

These are not associated with ETFs, exchanges, or miners, highlighting a distinct trend of steady accumulation despite the market’s ups and downs.

btc-custodial wallets
Source: @ki_young_ju

As we have been writing in ETHNews, during the same period, Bitcoin ETF holdings experienced a net outflow of 16,000 BTC, contrasting with the buying behavior of these permanent holders. This a complex picture of the current Bitcoin ecosystem, where different investor classes react diversely to market conditions.

bitcoin- two short squeezes-at-66K
Source: @ki_young_ju

Interestingly, the market has not yet experienced a long squeeze in this cycle, a scenario where long position holders are forced to sell their holdings, potentially triggering further price drops.

Source: @apsk32

However, historical data suggests two short squeezes occurred when Bitcoin reached $66,000 earlier this year, and four long squeezes were observed at $55,000 in the previous cycle.

ETHNews analysts are divided on whether the support level of $55,000, tested four times in the last cycle, remains a reliable floor, or if the absence of a long squeeze signals that Bitcoin has not yet reached its bottom.

Bitcoin Miner Total Outflows (# of Bitcoin)
Bitcoin Miner Total Outflows (# of Bitcoin) → CryptoQuant

Adding to the complexity, Bitcoin miner capitulation continues, with daily mined value significantly above levels traditionally indicating the end of such phases.

Source: @ki_young_ju

The current market sentiment suggests a subdued outlook for the coming months, with recommendations to maintain a long-term bullish stance but avoid excessive risks.

Bitcoin Miner Profit_Loss Sustainability
Bitcoin: Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability → CryptoQuant

The cryptocurrency’s price is expected to stabilize, with potential for significant growth projected towards the end of 2025, potentially seeing prices multiply.

Beyond simple market speculation, Bitcoin’s behavior is increasingly analyzed through fractals—patterns that use historical data to predict future performance.

These analyses consider factors like the number of days since the last halving and overall market cycles, often showing that psychological patterns, as much as technical ones, drive crypto market.

The ETFs pushed bitcoin’s price to $70k+ this spring, well outside of the fractal cloud. But, with recent price action turning downward, we appear to be reverting back to the pattern of previous cycles. Source: @apsk32

This approach involves scaling past price data to present conditions, using methods like the ‘years ahead of support’ metric. This metric calculates how many years it might take for Bitcoin’s price to align with its historical support trend, a consideration that can temper investment decisions.

#Bitcoin is attacking the underside of the average inflow cost basis for the ETFs at $58.24k. → Checkonchain

As we move forward, Bitcoin’s alignment with these fractal predictions will provide crucial insights.


The current reversion to earlier patterns, after deviations caused by factors like ETF-driven price spikes, underscores the cyclical and somewhat predictable nature of cryptocurrency markets. Yet, as always in the world of Bitcoin, the only certainty is the asset’s inherent unpredictability.

Disclaimer: ETHNews does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to cryptocurrencies. ETHNews is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned.
Isai Alexei
Isai Alexei
As a content creator, Isai Alexei holds a degree in Marketing, providing a solid foundation for the exploration of technology and finance. Isai's journey into the crypto space began during academic years, where the transformative potential of blockchain technology was initially grasped. Intrigued, Isai delved deeper, ultimately making the inaugural cryptocurrency investment in Bitcoin. Witnessing the evolution of the crypto landscape has been both exciting and educational. Ethereum, with its smart contract capabilities, stands out as Isai's favorite, reflecting a genuine enthusiasm for cutting-edge web3 technologies. Business Email: [email protected] Phone: +49 160 92211628