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- Checkmate, the leading on-chain analyst at Glassnode, has signaled a potential significant move for Bitcoin, due to a trend of seller exhaustion in the market.
- The Sell-side Risk Ratio, a metric showing investor reluctance to spend coins currently in profit or loss, is nearing an all-time low – a condition that typically precedes substantial market movements.
Signs of Seller Exhaustion and Predictions for Bitcoin
Checkmate, a prominent on-chain analyst at Glassnode, recently shared insights on Twitter about a growing sense of exhaustion among Bitcoin market participants. Checkmate spotlighted the Sell-side Risk Ratio, a key indicator that is fast approaching its lowest level ever recorded. This measure reflects investor hesitation to spend coins, whether they are currently profitable or at a loss.
According to Checkmate, such circumstances typically arise when sellers on both sides of the market are fatigued, potentially suggesting that major market movements could be forthcoming. The Realized Profit and Loss metrics, recognized as potent tools for analyzing Bitcoin, offer a glimpse into the sentiment of BTC holders, as well as capital flows and behavioral patterns.
Glassnode’s In-depth Analysis and Predictions Dismissed by Checkmate
Glassnode, where Checkmate is employed, provides a range of Profit/Loss dashboards which give comprehensive insights into these metrics. These tools are valuable resources for those seeking a deeper understanding of Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
While some users on Twitter theorized that this trend could be linked to high transaction fees, Checkmate dismissed this, arguing that fee levels become insignificant when people are dealing with high profits or losses. Likewise, Checkmate countered forecasts of Bitcoin plummeting to $10k due to potential failures of the US to raise its debt ceiling, viewing this scenario as improbable.
A Twitter user proposed the possibility of Bitcoin entering a lengthy accumulation phase. In response, Checkmate suggested that Bitcoin typically experiences a reaccumulation period of about 12 months after a market low, if that is indeed the current scenario. His base prediction is a large but volatile range between $40k and $22k, coinciding with expected market movements.
To sum up, Checkmate has brought attention to seller exhaustion within the Bitcoin market. As the Sell-side Risk Ratio approaches all-time lows, investors are showing caution about spending coins that are either currently in profit or at a loss. These conditions frequently herald substantial market shifts. Notably, as reported by The Crypto Basic, Peter Brandt advised caution, having identified a bearish pennant pattern formed by BTC.