Popular technical analyst EGRAG Crypto shared a bold projection for XRP, arguing that the token’s long-term structure still points toward a multi-dollar breakout in the current market cycle. Using historical price data and Gaussian Channel analysis, EGRAG presented three intertwined theories, the 10% Theory, Diminishing Returns, and Diminishing Downside, all pointing to continued strength for XRP through 2026.
The 10% Theory: History Rhymes
EGRAG compared XRP’s current price action to the 2017–2018 bull run, when the asset delivered an explosive 3,700% surge from its pre-rally base. Applying what he called the “10% Theory,” he argued that XRP has so far only replicated around 10% of that move in this cycle, approximately a 370% gain.
If that pattern continues proportionally, a 2,440% rally could still be ahead, putting XRP’s potential target range between $5.50 and $6.00.
“Tell the TA masters, we can still 2.4× before anyone panics,” EGRAG joked, noting that historical cycle math supports a substantial upside continuation before exhaustion.
The “Diminishing Returns” Debate
Addressing common critiques that XRP’s returns have declined over time, EGRAG dismissed the idea of a “fading market cycle.” He highlighted that even during the SEC lawsuit and broader regulatory headwinds, XRP still managed to post a 1,700% gain from bottom to top during the 2021 cycle.
For the current cycle, skeptics suggest diminishing returns could cap XRP at a 1,200% rise, around $3.65, but EGRAG argued the opposite.
“We’re in an exponential tech era, not the Stone Age,” he wrote. “Repeat 1,700%, and we’re talking $5+ easily.”
Diminishing Downside: Shallower Bear Markets
The third theory EGRAG presented focuses on the decreasing severity of XRP’s bear market drawdowns.
- Cycle 1: –96% decline
- Cycle 2: –86% decline
Following this trend of roughly 10% improvement per cycle, a future bear market could see XRP drop only –76%, which would still leave post-peak prices above $1.20.
“If $5–$6 is the cycle top, the next bottom would likely hold between $1.20–$1.40, still very strong,” he explained.
Even under a more conservative assumption that $3.65 marks the current top, the chart shows that $0.87 could serve as a durable floor.
The Takeaway
EGRAG concluded his thread with characteristic humor, reminding holders to focus on long-term positioning rather than short-term volatility.
“If you bought below $0.50 like I did, go hit the beach – you’re early,” he quipped.
The accompanying charts visualize XRP’s cyclical rhythm and Gaussian Channel progression, with each bullish expansion reaching higher highs and the downside becoming progressively shallower.
While EGRAG’s price target of $5.50–$6.00 may appear ambitious, his data-driven structure suggests that the macro pattern remains intact, and that XRP’s most powerful rally phase could still be on the horizon.