Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO argues that recent price action in XRP reflects seller exhaustion rather than a bearish breakdown, suggesting the broader bull market structure may still be intact.
In his latest analysis, EGRAG said the last three monthly candles resemble what he describes as a “don’t sell” structure, rather than a classic sell signal. According to the analyst, this pattern points to fading downside pressure, even though a confirmed trend reversal has not yet occurred.
Monthly Candles Signal Fading Selling Pressure
EGRAG highlighted that XRP’s recent monthly structure follows a familiar technical sequence. A large red candle signaled a strong selling impulse, but subsequent candles showed smaller bodies and weaker follow-through. At the same time, price has begun to stabilize around the $2 level, a zone the analyst sees as critical for assessing market intent.
This type of price behavior typically indicates that sellers are losing momentum. However, EGRAG cautioned that stabilization alone is not enough and that further confirmation is still required before declaring a full reversal.
Bull Market Structure Still Intact
From a trend perspective, EGRAG noted that XRP remains above the monthly 21 EMA, a level he considers essential for maintaining a bullish market structure. As long as price holds above this moving average, the analyst views the current phase as a reset or consolidation, not a structural breakdown.
This suggests the market may be digesting prior gains rather than transitioning into a prolonged downtrend.
Probabilities for a Bottom Formation
EGRAG also outlined several possible scenarios for XRP’s next major move. He estimates a 55%–60% probability that a bottom is currently forming, while assigning a 25%–30% chance to another downside flush or long wick before stabilization. A deeper monthly downtrend, in his view, carries a lower probability of around 15%.
These probabilities reflect uncertainty but lean toward continued consolidation rather than aggressive downside continuation.
XRP Price Outlook and $10 Scenario
Looking ahead, EGRAG said that from a pure technical analysis perspective, a move toward $10 XRP within the next three to six months carries an estimated 65%–85% probability. He emphasized that such a move would likely require a strong risk-on environment and a broader altcoin season.
The analyst pointed to his Elliott Wave count as the basis for this projection, noting that the price target depends on confirmation from higher-timeframe momentum.
Key Takeaway
EGRAG concluded that current conditions resemble a “don’t sell” zone, though not yet a confirmed bottom. As long as XRP remains above the monthly 21 EMA, the bullish case remains valid. For now, confirmation remains the missing ingredient, but the structure suggests exhaustion on the sell side rather than a breakdown in trend.
