- Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has declared XRP ETF approval odds as “essentially 100%,” with Polymarket also reflecting near-certain approval, fueling strong market optimism.
- Expert EGRAG Crypto projects XRP could rally to $33 in its next cycle, supported by institutional accumulation, ecosystem upgrades, and the SEC’s streamlined ETF review process.
XRP investors are buzzing with optimism as analysts say the long-awaited approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) is now virtually inevitable. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas announced that the odds of approval have reached “essentially 100%,” setting the stage for what could be a transformative moment for Ripple’s native token.
With bullish analysts such as EGRAG Crypto projecting XRP could hit $33 in the next market cycle, attention is now firmly fixed on upcoming SEC decisions.
ETF Approval Odds at 100%
Balchunas explained that recent regulatory reforms have streamlined the ETF approval process.The adoption of “generic listing standards” eliminates the need for 19b-4 filings, which were historically one of the biggest hurdles.
Instead, only the SEC’s Corporation Finance division must give the final sign-off.
Several issuers, including Solana-linked firms, have already filed updated S-1 amendments, a clear sign that the process is nearing completion.
While Balchunas’ colleague James Seyffart warned that a potential U.S. government shutdown might impact timing, the structural changes mean eventual approval appears inevitable. In fact, the SEC has already requested issuers to withdraw their outdated 19b-4 filings and even retracted delay notices for ETFs tied to XRP, Solana, and other altcoins.
Polymarket, a prediction platform, currently places the odds of an XRP ETF approval at above 99%, reinforcing the view that clearance is more a matter of “when” than “if.”
Key SEC Deadlines Approaching
October could prove to be pivotal for XRP. The SEC is set to review six spot XRP ETF applications within one week. Grayscale leads on October 18, followed closely by 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and CoinShares, before WisdomTree wraps up on October 24. Market watchers suggest that the retraction of SEC delays may indicate that decisions could come sooner than expected.
Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, described the upcoming reviews as “enormous” for the crypto ETF landscape. If XRP wins approval, it would follow the trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which have already secured regulatory breakthroughs this year.
Expert Eyes $33 Price Target
Amid the ETF momentum, crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto has reiterated his bold forecast that XRP could climb to $33 during its next cycle. He points to historical patterns: a 350% rally in 2017 and more than 100% gains in 2021 under similar setups. According to EGRAG, the next surge could kick off as soon as late November 2025.
Fundamentals also appear supportive. The XRP Ledger (XRPL) has undergone significant upgrades, including tokenized swaps tied to BlackRock’s BUIDL fund and VanEck’s VBill product. Institutional demand is also building, with reports of a French financial insider purchasing $48 million worth of XRP in a single transaction.
Between institutional accumulation, network upgrades, and regulatory momentum, XRP is at the cusp of a potentially historic rally. If ETF approval arrives in October, analysts believe it could mark the start of a powerful uptrend that might ultimately send XRP into the double digits and beyond.
