- SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s renewed opposition to crypto ETFs has caused XRP ETF approval odds to drop from over 90% to 65%, rattling market sentiment.
- Despite growing institutional interest and XRP meeting SEC listing criteria, Crenshaw’s consistent dissent may pose a significant hurdle for future ETF approvals.
The road to an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) just became more uncertain. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw has once again voiced strong opposition to crypto ETFs, sending shockwaves through the market.
As a result, approval odds for an XRP ETF have dropped from as high as 90% to just 65%, according to Polymarket data.
Crenshaw’s Solo Dissent Raises Red Flags
Crenshaw, currently the only Democrat on the Commission, has consistently voted against crypto ETF proposals. Of the 13 internal SEC votes held recently on various crypto exchange-traded products, including those tied to Bitcoin (IBIT, BITB, GBTC), Ethereum, and in-kind redemptions, Crenshaw was the lone dissenting voice in all cases.
Journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that Crenshaw’s firm anti-crypto stance sends a “clear message” that she remains staunchly against further ETF approvals, including those for altcoins like XRP.
Her objections aren’t limited to ETFs; she’s also criticized SEC guidance on liquid staking and stablecoins, calling the policies “legally and factually flawed.” These broader critiques further cement her image as a regulatory hawk when it comes to crypto assets.
Market Sentiment Wavers but Hope Remains
Following the successful launch of the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF (UXRP) on NYSE Arca on July 18, optimism around a spot XRP ETF soared, with Polymarket odds rising to 86%. However, Crenshaw’s opposition during the latest round of SEC votes, particularly regarding NYSE Arca filings, caused those odds to sink to a low of 65%, before slightly recovering to 71%.
Still, not everyone is pessimistic. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes altcoin ETFs, including one for XRP, could still move forward. He points to new SEC listing requirements, which favor tokens with at least six months of derivatives trading, a criterion XRP now satisfies.
Fueling further speculation, rumors of a BlackRock XRP ETF have surfaced. BlackRock’s Director of Digital Assets, Maxwell Stein, is scheduled to speak at Ripple’s Swell 2025 conference, intensifying speculation that the world’s largest asset manager may be preparing to file.
Regulatory Tug-of-War Ahead
While the SEC’s recent approval of in-kind creation/redemption for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs brought them closer to commodity-based ETPs like gold, Crenshaw’s stance reveals a sharp divide within the Commission. Her consistent dissent, especially if backed by others in the future, could pose a significant obstacle for altcoin ETFs.
For now, the path to an XRP ETF remains open, but filled with uncertainty. Market confidence has clearly been shaken, and all eyes are now on how much sway Crenshaw will hold in shaping the SEC’s next moves.
