- XRP’s NUPL metric hits “Belief-Denial,” a historical reversal zone signaling potential local top formation now.
- Falling wedge pattern warns of 22-38% XRP crash risk unless key resistance breaks soon.
- Despite 40% rebound since April, XRP remains 37% below its January peak of $3.40.
XRP’s price reached approximately $2.50 on June 4, recovering over 40% from lows seen on April 7. However, this price remains 37% below its January 2025 high of $3.40. Several factors now suggest a possible price decrease could occur.
An on-chain measure called Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicates XRP may be near a short-term peak. This metric entered a specific zone historically linked to price reversals.
Previously in 2021, XRP reached this same zone around $2 before its price dropped. Currently, many holders show profits but past behavior indicates they might sell if the price rebound stalls. This pattern often leads to distribution pressure.
Meanwhile, institutional investors are reducing exposure to XRP. Exchange-traded products (ETPs) holding XRP recorded $28.20 million in outflows during the week ending May 30. Monthly outflows totaled $56.60 million. This contrasts with other crypto assets like ETH, Solana, and Sui, which saw net inflows during the same period. Reduced institutional participation can affect price support.
Technically, XRP trades within a falling wedge pattern. The price recently pulled back after testing the pattern’s upper resistance line. Previous tests of this resistance led to price drops; one instance in March resulted in a 45% decline.
If this pattern repeats, ETHNews analysis points to a potential 22% decrease toward $1.78. This level aligns with the wedge’s lower trendline and a key moving average. A larger drop toward $1.45, representing a 38% fall from current prices, remains possible if downward pressure increases.
Taken together, these factors – the NUPL position, institutional outflows, and the bearish chart pattern – create a clouded picture for XRP’s immediate price direction. The asset’s ability to overcome its current technical resistance will likely determine if it avoids these projected declines.
XRP (Ripple) is trading at $2.2416 USD, experiencing a minor −0.19% daily decline. While this reflects a brief pause in momentum, XRP remains technically strong after breaking above the key $2.25 level earlier this week.
On the weekly scale, XRP has dipped −3.14%, but over the past month, it is up +4.09%, maintaining a healthy +7.97% year-to-date gain and an impressive +331.82% over the past year.
From a technical standpoint, XRP has shown signs of recovery with improving RSI levels and bullish signals forming on multi-day charts. Support has built up in the $2.10 to $2.20 range, which traders are now watching as a critical zone for continued upside.
Momentum could accelerate if XRP manages a confirmed breakout above $2.30, with targets around $2.78 to $3.38 mentioned by analysts in active trade setups.
On the fundamentals side, Ripple has seen major on-chain movement: 330 million XRP were released, while 670 million XRP were locked in escrow, reducing near-term circulating supply.
Additionally, 130 million XRP were transferred to unknown wallets, a move interpreted as strategic repositioning. Meanwhile, anticipation around an XRP ETF approval has surged — Polymarket shows a 98% probability of ETF approval in 2025, despite SEC delays.
