- Recent on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin may not reach its cycle peak until 2025, contrary to earlier predictions.
- Analysis of Puell Multiple and halving cycles suggests a pattern of miner profit-taking that precedes market tops.
Bitcoin, has shown mixed signals in its recent weekly trends, raising questions about the timing of its next cycle peak. While some have speculated that the peak could arrive as early as 2024, new analyses suggest that 2025 might be a more accurate target.
Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant, recently addressed the current state of Bitcoin on X. He pointed out that the dominance of Bitcoin’s spot volume on Coinbase has reverted to levels last seen in early 2024, a period marked by anticipation of an ETF approval that never materialized.
Coinbase's #Bitcoin spot trading volume dominance is back to pre-spot ETF levels.
For the bull cycle to continue, U.S. demand needs to rebound. I expect this in Q4, but I could be wrong.
We're mid-cycle and haven't hit the retail bubble yet. pic.twitter.com/9YQ2dCtfXY
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) September 7, 2024
This regression is not seen as a positive sign for immediate bullish behavior; however, it indicates that U.S. investor involvement could be critical in driving Bitcoin’s price to new highs.
Further analysis from ETHNews, utilizing on-chain metrics supports the idea that Bitcoin might still be midway through its cycle. This analysis revealed insights into Bitcoin’s Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs), particularly focusing on the age bands of these UTXOs.
The data showed sharp fluctuations in the 3-month to 2-year age bands, which tend to peak and trough dramatically around market tops and bottoms.
This suggests that many holders did not see recent fluctuations as the cycle top, despite past patterns like those seen in October 2013, October 2016, and April 2020, which were influenced by Bitcoin’s halving events.
Additionally, the Puell Multiple, an indicator used to gauge the economic incentives for miners, has shown similar peak formations between cycles. This suggests that miners might be selling off Bitcoin to secure profits and sustain operations before another halving event, a cycle that has repeated over the years.
Based on these indicators and the historical context of Bitcoin’s market behavior, the current cycle peak is likely still a year away, coinciding with the aftermath of the April 2024 halving.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $54,234.52 USD, with a slight drop of 0.60% in the last 24 hours. The immediate support is around $54,000, while resistance stands near $54,700.
Despite being below its 50-day moving average, BTC remains above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend. The RSI is neutral at 55, and the MACD shows weakening bullish momentum.
Volume remains steady, suggesting continued market participation, but short-term trends may lean bearish if BTC fails to hold its support.
