His comments respond to rising uncertainty among users who worry that Ethereum’s currently low fees may not stay stable over the next two years. Buterin believes a fully on-chain futures system could bring clarity, market expectations, and practical hedging tools to millions of ETH users.
A Market to Predict and Lock Future Gas Fees
Buterin explains that many people ask whether today’s low fees will hold as Ethereum evolves. They often reference upgrades like greater gas limits, EIP-4844 improvements, and future ZK-EVM efficiencies, yet remain unsure these changes will guarantee long-term stability.
He argues that a trustless gas futures market could solve this uncertainty by giving users a clear signal of expected future fees, similar to a prediction market built directly on Ethereum’s BASEFEE. With such a system, users could hedge against rising gas costs and even prepay for specific amounts of gas within a chosen time period.
We need a good trustless onchain gas futures market.
(Like, a prediction market on the BASEFEE)
I've heard people ask: "today fees are low, but what about in 2 years? You say they'll stay low because of increasing gaslimit from BAL + ePBS + later ZK-EVM, but do I believe you?"… pic.twitter.com/FHhR5NqHol
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) December 6, 2025
Early Experiments Are Already Emerging
According to Buterin, at least one project is already exploring this idea. He points to Oiler Network, which is building “Pitch Lake,” a work-in-progress DeFi vault system that allows users to trade Ethereum mainnet basefee through a TWAP-based settlement mechanism. The system uses StarkNet STARK proofs to calculate monthly basefee averages and enables verified block-header access for settlement.
Buterin hopes this category grows, noting that more experimentation would help the ecosystem mature faster.
Core Debate: The Market Lacks a Natural Short Side
Hasu joined the discussion by highlighting a structural challenge. He argues the market currently has no natural short side. Many participants want to hedge rising gas costs, meaning they are short gas. Yet almost nobody is “long gas,” which reduces incentive for meaningful market liquidity.
Hasu believes this imbalance could limit trading activity and keep the market from reaching scale.
In response, Buterin asked whether the protocol itself should act as the short side. He floated the idea of an on-chain auction system for BASEFEE claiming rights, potentially for fixed amounts like 1 million gas per block. This approach could inject the missing counterparty and give the futures market a foundation for sustained liquidity.
Rising Demand for Predictability as Ethereum Evolves
Buterin’s proposal comes as Ethereum continues to advance, with more users seeking certainty over future transaction costs. Although today’s fees are low, the ecosystem has seen enough volatility to keep users cautious about the medium-term outlook. A trustless futures market could offer the predictability many developers and institutions require, especially as Ethereum grows in scale and use cases.
Buterin emphasizes that this is not about speculation. Instead, it is about providing transparent expectations and hedging tools that match the network’s long-term economic design.
He concludes that it would be beneficial for the ecosystem to see more experimentation, more liquidity, and more mature markets around gas pricing. For now, early builders like Oiler Network are taking the first steps, but wider innovation will determine whether Ethereum gains the predictable fee environment many users have been hoping for.
