- Sharpe Ratio at multi-month lows, often a sign of bottoming; recovery could confirm investor confidence returning
- TON trades near $5.60; resistance at $6.20, support at $5.10; breakout or breakdown depends on leverage unwinding
Toncoin (TON) exhibits conflicting signals as on-chain metrics hint at accumulation while leveraged positions amplify risks. Data shows TON’s Risk Exposure Ratio peaked above 0.24 in early 2025, reflecting heightened borrowing in decentralized finance protocols.
This ratio suggests traders hold oversized leveraged bets despite TON’s price decline, raising liquidation risks. However, a subsequent drop in this metric could stabilize markets, potentially easing sell pressure.
The Normalized Risk Metric (NRM) declined in December 2024, signaling a shift from speculative trading to accumulation.
Historical patterns link such NRM dips to price rebounds, as seen in mid-2023. Concurrently, TON’s 30-day volatility fell to 80.47%, its lowest in six months. Reduced volatility often precedes sharp price moves, though direction depends on broader market sentiment.
TON’s 180-day Sharpe Ratio, measuring risk-adjusted returns, hit multi-month lows. While this indicates poor recent returns, similar troughs have marked accumulation phases before rallies. The ratio’s recovery could confirm renewed investor confidence. Meanwhile, active addresses and transaction counts show modest upticks, suggesting gradual user re-engagement.
Long-term NRM charts align with past cycles where low-risk periods preceded price gains. TON’s current NRM levels mirror those observed before a 40% rally in Q3 2024. However, open interest in TON futures remains elevated, exposing the asset to cascading liquidations if prices dip further.
Market now weigh two scenarios
Sustained accumulation and deleveraging could stabilize TON, creating a base for recovery. Conversely, prolonged high leverage may trigger volatility, delaying a rebound. External factors, including Bitcoin’s price trajectory and regulatory developments, add complexity.
Toncoin’s price hovered near $5.60 at press time, down 18% quarterly but up 12% monthly. Resistance near $6.20 and support at $5.10 define its short-term range. A breakout above $6.20 could validate accumulation theories, while a drop below $5.10 may extend losses.
The coming weeks will test whether TON’s metrics reflect genuine investor positioning or speculative noise. For now, the token balances between technical promise and the perils of excessive leverage, leaving its next move contingent on broader market forces and internal metric alignment.
