TD Cowen has reduced its 12-month price target for Strategy (MSTR) from $500 to $440, while reiterating a Buyrating.
The adjustment reflects concerns that the company’s aggressive capital-raising strategy is increasingly diluting the per-share benefit of its Bitcoin holdings, even as total BTC accumulation accelerates.
Bitcoin Yield Comes Under Pressure
In its latest note, TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete pointed to a declining “Bitcoin Yield,” a metric tracking growth in Bitcoin holdings relative to fully diluted shares outstanding.
LATEST: ⚡ Investment bank TD Cowen has lowered its 12-month price outlook for Microstrategy's MSTR stock for the second time since December, this time from $500 to $440, citing Bitcoin price weakness. pic.twitter.com/mvE81Ltads
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Strategy’s continued reliance on common equity and preferred stock issuance to fund Bitcoin purchases has expanded its share base faster than its BTC-per-share growth. As a result, TD Cowen lowered its fiscal 2026 Bitcoin yield forecast to 7.1%, down from a prior estimate of 8.8% and well below the 22.8% yield achieved in fiscal 2025.
More Bitcoin, Less Per-Share Impact
Despite the target cut, the firm actually raised its expectations for Strategy’s overall Bitcoin accumulation. TD Cowen now projects the company will acquire roughly 155,000 BTC in fiscal 2026, a sharp increase from its earlier estimate of 90,000 BTC.
That growing gap highlights the core tension in Strategy’s strategy: absolute Bitcoin exposure continues to rise, but the incremental benefit to each share is shrinking as dilution mounts.
Recent Capital Raises Add Context
The revision follows a volatile stretch for both Bitcoin and Strategy shares. In the week ending January 11, 2026, Strategy raised approximately $1.25 billion through share issuance, using the proceeds to acquire 13,627 BTC.
While the purchases reinforce the company’s long-term Bitcoin thesis, they also exemplify the dilution dynamic that prompted TD Cowen’s reassessment.
Bottom Line
TD Cowen’s downgrade is not a call on Strategy’s conviction or scale as a Bitcoin accumulator, but rather a recalibration of how efficiently that exposure translates to shareholders. As long as Bitcoin purchases are funded primarily through equity issuance, analysts warn that Bitcoin yield, not headline BTC totals, will remain the key constraint on valuation upside.
