- Burnett says efficient-markets believers should turn bullish on bitcoin, citing price signals and surging demand for BTC securities.
- Strategy built equity and bond-style instruments collateralized by bitcoin, delivering long-dated exposure and risk controls through over-collateralization mechanisms.
Joe Burnett, head of bitcoin strategy at Semler Scientific (SMLR), argues that anyone who accepts the efficient-markets hypothesis should read current price signals and turn strongly bullish on bitcoin. His point is direct: if markets process available information, the surge in demand for bitcoin-based securities is itself a data point that professionals should not ignore.
Economists who believe in the efficient market hypothesis should see the success of @Strategy and become hyper bullish on Bitcoin.
Strategy has built two Bitcoin-based financial products that are both in high demand. One is leveraged long-duration Bitcoin exposure through its…
— Joe Burnett, MSBA (@IIICapital) August 30, 2025
He cites Strategy—the public company led by Michael Saylor—as a case study. Strategy holds 632,457 BTC, according to Bitcoin Treasuries. Since 2020, the firm has built a financing stack around bitcoin: equity that provides long-dated, leveraged exposure to BTC and fixed-income instruments financed by over-collateralized bitcoin positions rather than traditional debt.
The company says those instruments carry a credit score above 5 on its scale, reflecting liquid collateral and tight risk controls. Moreover, Strategy accounts for roughly 15% of 2025 U.S. IPO issuance by value, with proceeds directed to additional bitcoin purchases.
Burnett frames the market outcome in practical terms
Bitcoin, he says, is becoming a base layer for capital and credit: a scarce, bearer-settled asset that can collateralize issuance without counterparty sprawl. By contrast, he argues, ignoring that flow is inconsistent with an efficient-markets stance.
However, he also warns about fiat instability using Ludwig von Mises’s “crack-up boom” concept: prolonged monetary expansion can push savers toward hard assets, not because of productive growth but due to collapsing confidence.
In that sequence, households and firms try to exit cash faster than it loses purchasing power. The rush lifts prices of equities, property, commodities, and alternative monies. Eventually, the currency can fail if trust erodes further.
Still, the evidence in front of investors is measurable: larger corporate treasuries in BTC, regular issuance tied to bitcoin collateral, and steady secondary-market demand for those securities. If one accepts that markets aggregate information, Burnett’s conclusion follows: today’s flows are not noise. They are the message.
