JPMorgan analysts are sounding the alarm over a growing risk for Strategy (MSTR): the possibility of being removed from major equity indexes due to its massive Bitcoin-focused treasury strategy. The warning comes ahead of a key decision from MSCI, expected in mid-January, that could reshape how traditional markets treat companies heavily tied to digital assets.
The potential impact is substantial. JPMorgan estimates that if MSCI excludes Strategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes, passive funds could be forced to unload around $2.8 billion worth of MSTR shares.
If other major index providers, such as Russell, follow MSCI’s lead, total forced outflows could reach $8.8 billion. That level of mechanical selling would not only hit the stock’s liquidity but also damage its appeal among institutional investors who rely on index inclusion for mandate compliance.
Analysts also warn that removal could place heavy pressure on Strategy’s valuation, a concern already reflected in the stock’s recent underperformance relative to Bitcoin.
The consultation has also raised questions for other public companies with significant Bitcoin holdings, including Mara Holdings, Riot Platforms, Hut 8, and Japanese firm Metaplanet, all of which could face similar risks.
With the MSCI review ongoing and traditional markets still grappling with how to classify Bitcoin-treasury companies, MicroStrategy’s January decision now stands as a major test for the entire corporate-Bitcoin sector.
