- Standard Chartered, in its latest analysis, has increased its bullish forecast for Bitcoin, projecting a price of $50,000 in 2023 and $120,000 by the end of 2024.
- The bank attributes the optimistic outlook to potential hoarding of Bitcoin by miners due to increased profitability and reduced selling pressure, influenced by rising prices and the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Standard Chartered’s Optimistic Outlook
In a recent analysis released on Monday, Standard Chartered, the renowned British multinational bank, has raised its bullish predictions for Bitcoin (BTC) over the next year and a half. The bank now forecasts that Bitcoin’s price could reach $50,000 in 2023 and potentially surge to $120,000 by the conclusion of 2024.
Bitcoin Miners and the Impact of Rising Prices
Standard Chartered suggests that the rising price of BTC could incentivize miners to hoard a larger portion of their mined supply, leading to a decreased availability of Bitcoin for trading purposes. Consequently, this reduced supply and increased demand could exert positive pressure on the price of Bitcoin. Geoff Kendrick, a Standard Chartered FX analyst, indicates that this adjustment adds an additional 20% upside to the bank’s previous forecast of $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin Miners’ Behavior
Historically, miners have been selling 100% of their new coins. However, Kendrick suggests that if the price were to reach $50,000, miners may only need to sell 20-30% of their proceeds to sustain their operations. This reduction in daily sales, from 900 to a range of 180-270 Bitcoins, could translate to a substantial reduction in net BTC supply, approximately 250,000 bitcoins per year.
Anticipated Bitcoin Halving Event
Additionally, another factor that may contribute to miners holding onto their BTC for higher prices is the Bitcoin halving. Currently projected to occur on April 16, 2024, the halving event will halve the new supply of Bitcoin minted with each block, thereby reducing the influx of new tokens into the market.
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Historical Patterns and Market Bottoms
At present, the block reward stands at 6.5 BTC, but after the upcoming halving, it will be reduced to 3.25 BTC. Consequently, this will result in the creation of 450 BTC per day, compared to the current 900 BTC. The historical data surrounding previous halvings indicates that Bitcoin’s price tends to reach a bottom point between 517 and 547 days before the event. Notably, this coincides with the recent market bottom on November 19.
Implications for Bitcoin’s Future Trajectory
As Standard Chartered strengthens its bullish stance on Bitcoin, its revised predictions present a potentially positive outlook for the cryptocurrency. With factors like increased profitability for miners and the forthcoming halving event, Bitcoin’s future trajectory remains an intriguing subject for both enthusiasts and investors alike.
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