The crypto market is at a critical juncture as Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, highlights fresh warning signs, along with a strong upside case, for Bitcoin (BTC). Kendrick’s recent commentary underscores both the fragility of near-term momentum and the potential for a historic rally in the months and years ahead.
Short-Term Drop and Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation
In a note released this week, Kendrick wrote that Bitcoin’s surge to over $126,000 earlier in October was derailed by renewed U.S.-China trade-war fears, sparking a sharp pull-back. He stated that a dip below $100,000 appears “inevitable”, though he believes such a drop may be short-lived.
Crucially, Kendrick is monitoring rotation flows from gold into Bitcoin, pointing to the summer long-held safe-haven asset’s recent sharp drop as a signal that capital may be migrating into crypto. As he puts it: when gold weakens, Bitcoin strength tends to follow.
Long-Term Targets Still Bullish
Despite the near-term turbulence, Standard Chartered maintains its bullish longer-term outlook. The bank reiterated a $200,000 year-end 2025 target and projected $300,000 by the end of 2026. These figures align with past forecasts from Kendrick’s team.
Previously, the research team projected that BTC could reach $400,000 in 2027 and $500,000 in 2028, assuming institutional inflows and inflationary pressure continue to build.
What This Means for Investors
Support levels matter: With a potential drop below $100,000, key support zones near $100-$105K are under pressure. A break below may signal broader weakness.
ETF flows & macro matters: Bitcoin’s structural outlook hinges on institutional ETF flows and the cycle of monetary policy. Standard Chartered cites both as pivotal in triggering the next leg up.
- Gold weakness as a tailwind: If gold continues to retreat, the case for Bitcoin as an alternative store-of-value strengthens.
- Trade war anxiety remains a risk: With trade tensions cited as a trigger for the recent pull-back, global macro risk remains a wild card.
In short, Kendrick suggests that while Bitcoin may retest lower levels, the combination of institutional demand, weaker gold, and macro tailwinds set the stage for a major upward move in 2026-28. Investors should watch for consolidation, liquidity drying up, and rotation signals as prime opportunities for positioning ahead of the next leg.