- The SEC has an 8-day window starting November 9 to potentially approve 12 pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications.
- Analysts predict a 90% chance of approval for at least one spot Bitcoin ETF by January 10, stirring market optimism.
SEC Spotlights Potential Bitcoin ETF Approval Period
In a remarkable turn of events, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States has stepped into an 8-day timeframe, initiating on November 9, that may lead to the approval of twelve spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. This pivotal period, which precedes a subsequent comment period commencing November 17, is being closely watched by investors and analysts alike, with the market’s pulse quickening in anticipation.
A Window of Opportunity Emerges
The current situation stems from the SEC’s strategic scheduling of the last day for comment on a swath of Bitcoin ETF proposals for November 8. This planning could align with a collective green light for the twelve spot Bitcoin ETF filings, including the much-discussed conversion of Grayscale’s GBTC trust product. The timing of this potential approval window is notably linked to Grayscale’s recent legal success, compelling the SEC to review its ETF conversion plan.
Notably, James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analysts, have illuminated the potential for this window of approval, underscoring that although the opportunity exists, it guarantees nothing. The SEC’s history of extending deadlines and remaining silent on approval outcomes continues to cast a shroud of uncertainty over the proceedings.
New Research note from me today. We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals. But if it comes earlier we are entering a window where a wave of approval orders for all the current applicants *COULD* occur pic.twitter.com/u6dBva1ytD
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 8, 2023
From November 17, attention shifts to filings by Global X Bitcoin Trust, Hashdex Bitcoin ETF, and Franklin Bitcoin ETF, which will not see resolutions until after November 23. In a broader scope, the SEC could render decisions on nine out of the twelve filings at any point before January 10, keeping market participants on their toes.
Grayscale’s Ongoing Conversations with SEC
Amidst this sea of possibilities, Grayscale has not been idle. The crypto asset manager has been actively engaging with the SEC’s Divisions of Trading and Markets and Corporation Finance. This dialogue follows their court victory on August 29 and is a critical component of their strategy to convert the GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
The Ripple Effect on the Crypto Market
The mere speculation of a Bitcoin ETF approval has been enough to send positive shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market. In the last quarter alone, Bitcoin’s value surged by over 30%, likely fueled by the increased probability of an ETF approval. This upturn has not been solitary; significant gains have been observed across various digital assets, including a staggering 93% increase for Solana, and substantial upticks for Ripple and Ether as well.
The belief that an ETF approval could trigger the next bull market is pervasive, though some analysts remain skeptical about the rally’s longevity. Nevertheless, as the window for the SEC’s potential approvals draws to a close, the entire crypto ecosystem waits with bated breath for what could be a transformative moment in the market’s evolution.