- Pro-XRP lawyer, John Deaton, projects that the SEC’s chances of outright victory against Ripple are less than 3%.
- Amidst legal skirmishes, rumors emerge suggesting a potential Ripple IPO on the horizon.
John Deaton, a lawyer with a staunch pro-XRP stance, provides a sobering prediction for the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) in their ongoing legal tussle with Ripple. As the case slowly inches towards its conclusion, Deaton sees the likelihood of an outright SEC triumph dwindling to a minuscule less than 3%.
Having been at the forefront of Ripple’s defense against SEC’s accusations since December 2020, Deaton, the founder of CryptoLaw, exhibits a profound understanding of the case. The SEC contends that Ripple’s sale of its XRP token constituted an unregistered securities offering. This debate constitutes the epicenter of the litigation and has led to widespread anticipation in the crypto space.
Delving into the likely outcomes during a June 3 appearance on The Good Morning Crypto podcast, Deaton illustrated three possible scenarios. He proposed a 25% chance for an outright Ripple victory under the ruling of U.S. District Judge Torres, and a 50% likelihood that Ripple would attain a victory through a “splitting the baby” ruling. The latter scenario implies a situation where Judge Torres delineates a boundary, perhaps by ruling that XRP functioned as an unregistered security prior to 2018.
The concept of cryptocurrency transitioning from security to commodity with adequate decentralization has been spurred by the so-called Hinman documents. These are internal SEC communications linked to a 2018 speech by ex-SEC Director William Hinman. Deaton further speculated that, regardless of the ruling, XRP might not be deemed a security, primarily because the allegations might not extend to secondary market sales.
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Highlighting the expected timeline, Deaton suggested that a definitive ruling would likely occur before September 30. This prediction is premised on Judge Torres’ historical avoidance of the “six-month list,” a document detailing summary judgments pending beyond six months that district judges must file to Congress. This list, made public on the last day of March and September, is often perceived as an indication of a judge’s inefficiency.
In addition to legal insights, Deaton offered a forecast for Ripple’s native XRP token value following a favorable ruling, with a plausible range between $2 and $10. He also hinted at June 13 as a pivotal date, on which it could be revealed if XRP was discussed among SEC staff prior to the Hinman speech.
As the lawsuit’s end draws near, rumors of a possible Ripple IPO have begun to circulate. Ripple is reportedly courting underwriters and investors during a “road show,” stirring anticipation for a public offering, according to Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett’s June 2 tweet.
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