Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has raised his confidence that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act, will pass by the end of April, increasing his estimated probability to 90%.
The revised outlook follows a series of high-level meetings in Washington involving crypto industry executives, banking representatives, and White House officials.
Confidence Rises After Washington Talks
Garlinghouse’s optimism has steadily increased in recent days.
On February 17, 2026, he estimated an 80% probability that the bill would pass by April. Just two days later, on February 19, he lifted those odds to 90%, citing “meaningful progress” during discussions at a White House meeting attended by leaders from Ripple, Coinbase, and major banking institutions.
Senator Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) also stated during the World Liberty Forum at Mar-a-Lago that the legislation could pass by April, reinforcing the perception of growing political momentum.
Garlinghouse has publicly urged the industry to support the bill even if it is not perfect, arguing that “clarity is better than chaos.” He noted that Ripple’s prior court victory regarding XRP’s status as a non-security gives the company more regulatory certainty than many other firms currently have.
What the CLARITY Act Would Do
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) is designed to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.
Key provisions include:
- Jurisdictional clarity: Clear definitions of which digital assets fall under the SEC (securities) and which under the CFTC (commodities).
- Maturity test: A new asset classification standard tailored to digital assets, intended to replace reliance on the decades-old Howey Test.
- Consumer protection: Mandatory segregation of customer funds and strengthened AML compliance requirements for exchanges.
- Self-custody rights: Explicit protection of individuals’ rights to hold their own digital assets.
The bill aims to move the industry away from what many executives describe as “regulation by enforcement.”
Remaining Obstacles
Despite the strong rhetoric from industry leaders, key disagreements remain unresolved.
The largest sticking point centers on whether crypto platforms should be allowed to offer yield-style incentives on stablecoins. Banks are reportedly pushing for restrictions, arguing that such products could draw deposits away from the traditional financial system. Crypto firms counter that banning stablecoin yields would hinder innovation.
The White House has reportedly set a March 1, 2026 deadline for negotiators to reach compromise language on these provisions.
Meanwhile, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket reflect more cautious expectations, with odds for spring passage fluctuating between roughly 46% and 75%, significantly below Garlinghouse’s 90% estimate.
Whether the final version emerges as a broad bipartisan framework or faces further delays will likely depend on how quickly negotiators resolve the stablecoin dispute in the coming weeks.
