A new report by 10X Research has revealed that retail investors have collectively lost $17 billion in their attempts to gain indirect exposure to Bitcoin through digital asset treasury (DAT) firms like Metaplanet and Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. The losses stem from inflated share premiums that once allowed these companies to sell stock at prices far above the real value of their Bitcoin holdings.
According to the Singapore-based research firm, this premium-driven “financial magic” has now collapsed, leaving many investors with steep losses as share prices fell back to align more closely with underlying asset values. “The age of financial magic is ending for Bitcoin treasury companies,” the analysts wrote in their report, “After the Magic: How Bitcoin Treasury Firms Must Evolve Beyond NAV Illusions.”
10X Research estimated that while retail investors collectively lost $17 billion, new shareholders overpaid by as much as $20 billion for inflated exposure to Bitcoin. For instance, Strategy’s shares, which once traded at triple or quadruple the value of its Bitcoin holdings, now hover around just 1.4 times its net asset value (NAV).
Metaplanet’s trajectory illustrates the same pattern. Its market capitalization once soared to $8 billion on just $1 billion in Bitcoin holdings, before tumbling to $3.1 billion, slightly below the $3.3 billion worth of Bitcoin it actually owns.
10X Research concluded that DAT firms must evolve into arbitrage-driven asset managers rather than relying on inflated valuations. While this approach may limit upside potential, analysts believe the smarter firms could still generate 15–20% annual returns by adopting more sustainable, value-based models.
