- 145.7M PI unlocks in November, part of a 318M PI supply release through December 2025.
- Price slipped 3.8% in 24h to $0.2155, with volatility increasing around unlock schedules.
- Technicals show RSI rising to 65.50 and MACD turning positive, hinting at short-term recovery pressure despite macro supply risks.
Pi Network is under renewed pressure as the project enters one of its largest token-unlock phases to date. The token fell 3.8% to $0.2155, with the market cap sliding to $1.79B, according to the latest CoinMarketCap data. The decline aligns with 150M PI tokens unlocking across November, equivalent to roughly $31M at current prices.
These unlocks are part of a much larger 318M PI release scheduled through December 2025. Historically, Pi unlock events have led to steep drawdowns; for example, the 72M unlock in May 2025 triggered a 30% price crash as early miners and OTC sellers seized exit liquidity. The current unlock cycle raises similar concerns, especially in a weak broader market.
Explaining the Current Chart: RSI Surges While Price Recovers From Intraday Low
The Pi/USDT chart on TradingView shows a clear intraday recovery structure despite macro selling pressure. Price dipped sharply near $0.212, followed by a sustained climb back toward $0.2161, driven by increasing volume around the bounce.
The RSI (14) rose aggressively from oversold levels to 65.50, indicating strong short-term buying momentum. RSI crossing above the midpoint often signals a shift from bearish to neutral-bullish conditions, though levels above 70 would signal overextension, Pi is approaching that boundary.
The MACD also reflects improvement. The MACD line moved to 0.0004 with the signal line at 0.0003, flipping positive for the first time during the session. The histogram turning green shows strengthening upward momentum, suggesting Pi may attempt another push toward $0.218–$0.220, provided buyers sustain volume.
Still, volatility remains elevated, the large candle wicks near the bottom and sudden spikes in volume suggest liquidity gaps, likely caused by sell-pressure from incoming unlocked tokens.
Why the Unlock Cycle Matters for Pi
Pi’s tokenomics remain one of its most debated aspects. Unlike typical launch models, Pi relies heavily on long-term unlocks tied to its early mining phase. These unlock waves increase supply sharply, but demand has not caught up proportionally.
This month’s 150M unlock adds significant circulating pressure. With the project still lacking a fully open mainnet, much of the newly unlocked PI tends to hit OTC channels or exchanges like OKX, creating overhead sell-walls.
In previous cycles, early holders took advantage of liquidity spikes to exit positions. If similar behavior repeats, Pi could face short-term continuation downward unless demand steps in to counterbalance supply expansion.
What Comes Next for PI Price?
Short-term technicals show recovery potential, but supply-side pressures remain dominant. If buyers defend the current $0.212–$0.215 zone, Pi may consolidate and attempt a move toward $0.220, where resistance has repeatedly formed on 5-minute intervals.
However, failure to sustain RSI momentum, and any increase in unlocked-token selling, could push Pi back toward $0.210, a level with repeated intraday reactions on the chart. A breakdown below $0.210 would expose the market to deeper declines, especially as December’s larger unlock tranche approaches.
The key to Pi’s near-term price action will be whether demand can absorb the unlock flow, a challenge the project has historically struggled with.