OPEC+ members are preparing to approve a modest increase in oil production for December, even as global supply continues to outpace demand and crude prices face sustained downward pressure. The move, expected to be finalized during an online meeting later today, signals a cautious effort by the group to gradually unwind earlier production cuts while preserving market stability.
Gradual Easing of Cuts Ahead of Vienna Summit
According to industry sources, the alliance is likely to agree on a 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase for December, mirroring the small incremental adjustments implemented in October and November. The decision comes just weeks ahead of the December 1 ministerial meeting in Vienna, where OPEC+ is expected to chart its broader production policy for 2026.
The current agreement, which includes some of the deepest coordinated production cuts in OPEC+ history, remains in effect throughout 2025 and is already scheduled for extension into next year. These curbs have been instrumental in propping up prices amid a global energy market still recovering from pandemic-era shocks and shifting consumption patterns.
Balancing Oversupply with Market Share
Despite these stabilizing efforts, global supply dynamics have shifted sharply. U.S. crude production recently hit record highs, and analysts warn of an emerging surplus in Q4 2025 and into 2026. Benchmark Brent and WTI prices have fallen for a third consecutive month, reflecting growing market concern that supply growth will continue to outpace consumption.
Still, sources close to OPEC+ say that the bloc aims to regain market share lost to non-member producers such as U.S. shale operators, while signaling that it remains in control of its long-term policy direction. “It’s a careful calibration,” one delegate said. “The increase is symbolic, it shows flexibility without abandoning discipline.”
Sanctions Add a Layer of Complexity
Recent U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil have introduced new uncertainty into global supply forecasts. While the measures could disrupt Russian export flows, they may also give OPEC+ political and economic cover to add limited volumes without triggering a sharp price collapse.
Market observers note that the group’s strategy reflects a blend of pragmatism and caution, a desire to ease production restraints and demonstrate resilience, while avoiding a return to the price volatility that characterized previous market downturns.
Focus Shifts to December 1 Policy Meeting
The upcoming ministerial meeting in Vienna is expected to define OPEC+’s policy trajectory for 2026, including whether the current framework of voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out or partially extended. Delegates are also expected to discuss the impact of slowing global demand, especially from key importers like China and India, where refinery activity has softened in recent months.
For now, OPEC+ remains focused on a measured approach, one that seeks to maintain market credibility, prevent panic selling, and keep prices within a stable trading band. As one official summarized ahead of today’s online session, “The message we want to send is continuity, not capitulation.”