Data from Coinglass, highlighted by analyst DaanCrypto, reveals a powerful seasonal pattern in Bitcoin’s price history. Despite recent volatility, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remain roughly flat for October 2025, a setup that historically precedes strong gains in the final months of the year.
The chart shows that October and November have been Bitcoin’s best-performing months on average, with mean monthly returns of +14.7% and +10.8%, respectively. Over the past decade, these two months have often marked turning points between bearish consolidation and bull-market acceleration.
Breaking Down the Chart: Where Bitcoin Gains (and Loses) Most
From 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin’s performance has shown clear monthly tendencies:
- January–February tend to be weaker, averaging –3% to –7%, often reflecting post-holiday sell-offs or tax-related outflows.
- March–April usually kick off recovery phases, with average returns near +12% — as seen in 2019 (+9.66%) and 2024 (+18.16%).
- June–August are the most inconsistent months, frequently red; August alone has delivered losses in 8 of the last 11 years, averaging –7.4%.
- October–November stand out:
– October 2021: +39.93%
– October 2023: +10.17%
– November 2020: +42.78%
– November 2023: +17.27%
These periods often coincide with renewed institutional inflows, ETF approvals, or post-summer liquidity surges. December tends to cool off, averaging –3.2%, as traders lock in profits.
Why This Matters for 2025
So far in October 2025, Bitcoin is nearly flat at –2.6%, following an 11% correction from its $125K all-time high earlier this month. However, if history rhymes, this sideways phase could precede the strongest two-month stretch of the year.
DaanCrypto cautioned that “past performance is no guarantee about the future,” but also emphasized that seasonality in Bitcoin is highly consistent, largely due to recurring market behavior, macro timing, and investor psychology.
With November historically producing green candles in 9 of the past 11 years, traders are now watching closely to see if Bitcoin repeats its pattern of fourth-quarter recoveries. If it does, the next leg up could drive BTC well beyond its $125K record, potentially setting the stage for a new all-time high before year-end.
