According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, Monero (XMR) is once again testing its long-standing monthly resistance at $422, a price level that has historically triggered major corrections. However, this time, the resistance appears to be weakening, suggesting a potential structural breakout after seven years of failed attempts.
Rekt Capital’s analysis points out that the first rejection from $422 led to a massive 94% price drop, the second caused a 77% retracement, and the third resulted in a 43% pullback. Each successive rejection has seen shallower declines, which the analyst interprets as a signal of market resilience and diminishing selling pressure.
Chart Analysis: Resistance Turns Fragile
The chart shared by Rekt Capital highlights how XMR’s repeated struggles against the $422 resistance form a textbook case of “resistance erosion.” On the monthly timeframe, the $422 zone (marked in red) has acted as a psychological ceiling since 2017. Yet, each test has been met with less aggressive sell-offs.
The green zones on the chart show prior accumulation areas, regions where Monero historically found strong buying interest after major corrections. Meanwhile, the recent breakout candle is approaching the $422 level once again, suggesting traders are watching closely to see if this time the level flips into support instead of rejection.
If XMR successfully closes above $422 on the monthly chart, it would mark the first confirmed breakout of this range in nearly a decade, potentially opening the path toward a higher macro trend.
Psychological Setup for a Major Shift
Rekt Capital notes that this type of setup often tells the psychological story of evolving resistance, where previously insurmountable barriers gradually transform into new floors for future rallies.
“The question,” the analyst writes, “is whether XMR will still face one final shallow rejection or finally turn $422 into a support level after seven years of trying.”
If confirmed, the breakout could place Monero among the most technically significant moves in the privacy coin sector this cycle, one that traders have been anticipating since its 2017 all-time high.