- Metaplanet’s aggressive Bitcoin strategy is under pressure as its stock price has plunged 54% since mid-June.
- The Tokyo-listed firm now faces a fundraising crunch, with its share-based “flywheel” model losing momentum.
The company has relied on a so-called “flywheel” mechanism, issuing MS warrants to its key investor Evo Fund, which could be exercised at higher share prices to provide fresh capital for Bitcoin purchases. With shares now trading sharply lower, exercising these warrants is no longer attractive, squeezing liquidity at a time when Metaplanet has ambitious expansion goals.
Currently, the company holds 18,991 BTC, worth more than $2 billion at today’s prices, ranking it as the seventh-largest public holder, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET. But its targets are even loftier: CEO and former Goldman Sachs trader Simon Gerovich has outlined a plan to amass 100,000 BTC by 2026 and 210,000 BTC by 2027.
That trajectory now looks increasingly difficult without new sources of funding.
Pivot to Overseas Fundraising
With the flywheel stalling, Metaplanet is seeking alternative fundraising avenues. On Wednesday, the firm announced plans to raise 130.3 billion yen ($880 million) through a public share offering in overseas markets. In addition, shareholders will vote on Monday on a bold proposal to issue up to 555 million preferred shares, a rare move in Japan that could raise as much as 555 billion yen ($3.7 billion).
Gerovich told Bloomberg the preferred shares are a “defensive mechanism,” designed to secure capital without diluting common shareholders further. The shares are expected to pay up to 6% annual dividends and will initially be capped at 25% of Metaplanet’s Bitcoin holdings, a structure that could appeal to yield-hungry Japanese investors.
Bitcoin Premium Slips
Still, analysts warn the company’s model hinges on maintaining a strong “Bitcoin premium”—the difference between its market cap and the value of its Bitcoin reserves. That premium has collapsed from over 8x in June to just 2x now, raising the risk that new fundraising could dilute shareholders rather than enhance value.
“The Bitcoin premium is what will determine the success of the entire strategy,” said Eric Benoit of Natixis. A shrinking premium could undermine Metaplanet’s ability to sustain its rapid accumulation.
In preparation for the shift, the company suspended Evo’s warrant exercises from Sept. 3 to Sept. 30, clearing the way for the preferred stock issuance. Whether these measures can stabilize its fundraising base remains an open question.
Index Upgrade Offers a Bright Spot
Despite the headwinds, Metaplanet has earned a promotion in FTSE Russell’s September 2025 Semi-Annual Review, moving from a small-cap to a mid-cap stock and gaining inclusion in the FTSE Japan Index. The upgrade, which follows a strong Q2 earnings report, may help attract institutional investors and provide some stability as the firm navigates its fundraising challenges.
Metaplanet’s long-term bet on Bitcoin remains intact, but with its stock under pressure and capital-raising tools constrained, the road to 210,000 BTC looks far steeper than before.
