According to data shared by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s correction is increasingly affecting long-term holders (LTHs), with on-chain metrics showing a notable shift in behavior.
Bitcoin continues to trade more than 45% below its previous all-time high, and recent data suggests that even historically resilient investors are beginning to realize losses and increase exchange activity.
LTH SOPR Turns Negative
The Long-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which measures whether LTHs are selling at a profit or loss, has recently fallen below the critical 1.0 threshold.
The indicator now stands at approximately 0.88, a configuration not seen since the end of the 2023 bear market. When SOPR drops below 1.0, it implies that coins being spent are, on average, being sold at a loss.
Although the annual average LTH SOPR remains elevated at 1.87, the recent drop below 1.0 signals increasing financial stress within a cohort that typically holds through volatility.
Elevated Binance Inflows
At the same time, LTH inflows to Binance have increased meaningfully.
The chart highlights several periods where daily inflows have reached roughly twice the annual average, marking unusually elevated activity. In recent weeks, multiple consecutive days recorded inflows well above typical levels.
Given their capacity to move large BTC volumes, long-term holders often use Binance due to its market depth and liquidity. Rising inflows to the exchange suggest repositioning rather than passive holding.
Structural Implications
When long-term holders begin to sell at a loss and increase exchange deposits, it can signal a transition from passive resilience to active risk management.
This does not automatically imply capitulation, but it does indicate growing pressure within the market structure. Historically, durable bottoms tend to form only after LTH stress stabilizes or reverses.
For now, the data suggests an ongoing adjustment phase. Rising LTH inflows, combined with negative realized profitability, point to intensifying selling pressure that could continue to weigh on Bitcoin’s short- to medium-term dynamics.
