- Historical data suggests Bitcoin could reach its next market peak around summer 2025, following its halving event.
- CryptoQuant CEO predicts a potential U.S. market demand rebound for Bitcoin in Q4, though uncertainties remain.
In early 2023, Bitcoin witnessed a rise in its market value, facilitated by the introduction of spot ETFs, attracting new investors and reaching a record peak of $73,737 by mid-March.
Despite this initial surge, the cryptocurrency’s momentum has diminished over subsequent months, prompting discussions about the continuation of its bull cycle.
Following the Bitcoin halving event in April, which reduced the miners’ block reward from 12.5 to 6.25 bitcoins, expectations were high for a price increase. However, contrary to these expectations, Bitcoin’s value declined by 12% from its halving price of $63,900, as detailed by IntoTheBlock.
Although this decrease followed the halving, Bitcoin’s current market value still exceeds the projections made before the halving event.
This chart shows the returns in each halving cycle
🔴The current cycle marks a ~12% price decrease from its halving price of $63.9K
🟢Historically, the average time between Bitcoin's halving event and the next peak is around 480 days, which would place it in the summer of 2025. pic.twitter.com/ZTraSvbegk
— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) September 7, 2024
Analysis from IntoTheBlock provides a historical context, suggesting that Bitcoin typically reaches a market peak approximately 480 days after each halving. If this pattern holds, the next peak would be expected in the summer of 2025.
Presently, Bitcoin’s price oscillates between $55,000 and $69,000. Breaking past the $70,000 mark might signal a resurgence of the bull cycle.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, shared insights indicating that Bitcoin is midway through its current bull cycle, with the anticipated “retail bubble”—a phase of significant retail investor entry—still to occur.
Despite a robust start to the year, the demand for Bitcoin in the U.S. has shown signs of decline, as evidenced by reduced trading volumes on Coinbase back to levels seen before the spot ETFs were launched.
ETHNews predicts a potential rebound in investor interest by the fourth quarter, though he remains cautious about the certainty of this timing.
The current Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin (BTC) is 37, which places it in the neutral range.
An RSI of 37 suggests that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold, though it’s approaching oversold territory.
This could indicate that the market sentiment is balanced, but a further drop in RSI could push Bitcoin into oversold conditions, signaling a potential buying opportunity.
