Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital has raised the possibility that Bitcoin could have already entered its next bear market phase, citing historical halving cycle patterns. In a recent market update, he noted that Bitcoin’s current timeline aligns almost perfectly with previous cycle tops.
According to his analysis, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the halving in 2017 and 549 days post-halving in 2021. The latest price action, he said, fits right in between those timelines, roughly 540 days after the 2024 halving event, suggesting that this year’s rally might have already reached its climax.
Still, Rekt Capital cautioned that this doesn’t necessarily confirm a full market reversal. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s cycles have gradually lengthened over time, meaning the top could extend further, possibly into mid-November or even December 2025, without breaking the established four-year pattern.
In other words, Bitcoin could still push for one final leg up before completing its macro structure, but if historical timing holds true, the clock may already be ticking toward a broader correction phase.
The analysis reflects a growing debate in the crypto community about whether Bitcoin’s latest pullback is a temporary pause or the start of a new downtrend. With the asset still hovering below its recent highs, Rekt Capital’s data-driven timeline adds weight to the argument that the cycle top may already be in.
