- Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff revisits 2018 bearish call; Bitcoin trades near $113,270, disproving $100 forecast within ten years.
- Rogoff links BTC to illicit activity and tax evasion, citing $20 trillion informal economy; critics highlight monetary hedging.
Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff has revisited his 2018 call on bitcoin. Then, he argued it was likelier for BTC to trade near $100 than $100,000 within a decade. Today, with bitcoin around $113,270 at the time of writing, the market supplies a clear counterpoint.
On X, Rogoff said he was too “optimistic” about the United States adopting sensible crypto rules and again tied bitcoin to illicit activity, tax evasion, and an informal economy he sized at $20 trillion.
Almost a decade ago I was the Harvard economist that said that bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100k. What did I miss? I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax…
— Kenneth S Rogoff (@krogoff) August 19, 2025
However, his update triggered immediate pushback. Analysts and investors pointed to use cases that do not rely on opacity: protection from currency debasement, self-custody without third-party permission, and final settlement at all hours.
Pierre Rochard listed bitcoin’s fixed issuance, independently verifiable supply, global settlement, and permissionless control as features savers and institutions rationally value. Meanwhile, Lyn Alden underscored the basic premise: if a network allows savings to avoid dilution and payments without gatekeepers, it holds value—whether regulators approve of it or not.
I’d suggest he also missed that people went protection from debasement, and want permissionless payments for very valid reasons. A network that enables that is worth something.
But he turned off comments, so he’s not interested in what the people have to say. https://t.co/4cyedvtA5z
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) August 20, 2025
Context matters. Since 2018, bitcoin became legal tender in El Salvador (2021). In March 2025, President Donald Trump signed an order authorizing a federal bitcoin reserve using seized funds.
Additionally, Arizona and New Hampshire passed laws to form state reserves. Corporate adoption has also grown; Strategy, a public company, now holds more than 600,000 BTC. These steps did not come from an underground economy; they came through formal policy, corporate treasuries, and open markets.
Moreover, bitcoin’s design continues to anchor its use: a hard cap of 21 million coins, decentralized issuance, and global transfer without intermediaries. Therefore, holders frame it as “digital gold,” a phrase that hints at store-of-value intent more than speculation. Yet risks remain—price volatility, policy shifts, and operational lapses can hurt returns.
In the end, Rogoff’s remarks reopen an old debate. Credentials do not settle it; facts do. Adoption moves through laws, balance sheets, and custody choices. Price records the score.
