Crypto analyst Dark Defender cautioned traders against over-relying on technical indicators like MACD, RSI, Supertrend, and Parabolic SAR, arguing that these tools “reflect what has happened, not what’s about to happen.” According to him, such indicators lag behind real-world macro events, meaning markets can reverse sharply even when charts still look bearish.
He noted that macro catalysts such as Federal Reserve rate cuts or new regulatory policies can instantly flip sentiment and “invalidate all existing bearish setups.” This dynamic, he said, has played out repeatedly in past cycles, including in 2019 and late 2020, when both Bitcoin and XRP were technically bearish before exploding higher once the Fed turned dovish and launched new rounds of quantitative easing (QE).
Rate Cuts Bring a Liquidity Flood
Dark Defender explained that monetary easing is the single most powerful signal for crypto, as it directly increases liquidity in financial markets. “When the Fed cuts rates, two key things happen,” he said.
The U.S. dollar weakens, driving investors toward hard and risk assets like gold and cryptocurrencies.
Liquidity rises, encouraging capital to chase returns in high-volatility markets. Crypto, being “the highest-beta asset class,” typically front-runs liquidity cycles, meaning it begins rallying before traditional assets do.
From QT to QE: The Pivot That Can Change Everything
While many on-chain and technical metrics currently flash bearish signals across major assets, Dark Defender emphasized that macro policy can change the script overnight. He referenced Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comment that “QT could end soon”, a statement he interprets as code for renewed monetary expansion.
“I will interpret for you,” he wrote. “We will print more money. More money equals liquidity.”
That, he argued, could trigger a massive momentum reversal, similar to the liquidity-driven rallies of previous cycles.
“Expect the Unexpected”
Despite widespread bearish readings, Dark Defender’s message was clear: traders should focus less on lagging technical signals and more on the evolving macroeconomic narrative. In his view, any shift from tightening to easing could ignite another major crypto rally.
“Expect the unexpected,” he concluded, a reminder that in markets driven by liquidity and policy, sentiment can turn bullish long before the charts catch up.