Ethereum is back in focus after two influential analysts highlighted patterns that mirror previous cycle expansions.
A combination of long-term technical structure and whale-level cost basis signals has revived speculation that ETH could be preparing for a major breakout heading into 2026.
A Familiar Long-Term Structure Appears on the Monthly Chart
Bitcoinsensus points to a repeating pattern visible across the last two major Ethereum cycles.
- In 2017, ETH formed a multi-month consolidation, dipped into a shakeout, and then exploded into its parabolic run.
- In 2021, the same sequence unfolded: consolidation → shakeout → acceleration to new highs.
$ETH 2026 SETUP LOOKS FAMILIAR 🚀
2017 → Shakeout → Explosion.
2021 → Shakeout → Moon.
🟣 2026? Potentially same setup, same breakout, same energy.#Ethereum #Crypto pic.twitter.com/kOQw28cSVz
— Bitcoinsensus (@Bitcoinsensus) December 12, 2025
According to the chart, ETH now sits at a similar structural point. The 2025 shakeout tested long-term support and held, mirroring the same behavior that preceded both major rallies in earlier cycles. The projection shown on the chart outlines a potential breakout window heading into 2026, with price structure and market rhythm following nearly identical trajectories.
The visual emphasis of the chart is clear: ETH has reached this exact setup twice before, and both times, momentum followed almost the same path.
On-Chain Data Shows ETH Trading at Whale Cost Basis
EllioTrades adds an important on-chain dimension to the discussion.
A CryptoQuant chart shows that Ethereum is currently trading at the realized price of wallets holding 100,000 ETH or more, the “whale cost basis.” This level has only been reached a handful of times since the 2021 run.
$ETH is trading at whale cost basis
This has only happened a few times since its meteoric run in 2021 pic.twitter.com/cvHvh74f5F
— EllioTrades (@elliotrades) December 13, 2025
Historically, each time ETH touched this blue realized-price band, accumulation by large holders increased. These periods marked the tail end of deep correction phases and often preceded sustained upward trends.
The chart also shows four distinct historical touches of whale cost basis since mid-2021, each aligning with major macro or cycle bottoms. The latest touch, labeled #4, places ETH in a zone previously associated with renewed long-term positioning by the biggest wallets.
What the Charts Suggest for 2026
Together, the two charts describe a similar story:
- The macro structure resembles the pre-breakout phases of 2017 and 2021.
- Whales are effectively holding ETH near their long-term average cost, historically a sign of value zones rather than exhaustion zones.
- Shakeout events have repeatedly acted as launchpads in previous cycles.
While market conditions evolve and past patterns never guarantee future results, the combination of long-term technical structure and deep on-chain metrics is gaining attention across the analyst community.
Ethereum enters 2026 with a familiar setup, renewed accumulation signals, and one of the strongest historical patterns in its cycle roadmap.
