- Short-term holders regained profits after $107k bounce; STH NUPL recovered from -0.07, inviting distribution near resistance once again.
- Break above $116k–$117k targets $120k quickly; failure reopens tests at $112k and $107k into event-driven volatility this week.
Bitcoin is trading into a crowded price area near $116,963. On-chain data shows about 534,000 BTC—roughly 2.68% of supply—sit near break-even there. This band acted as a ceiling after the early-July all-time high near $123,000, when price moved between $115,000 and $120,000 for more than two weeks and then slipped about 6% as realized profits jumped.
Short-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (STH NUPL) turned negative at -0.07 in late August when price lost $116,000 and fell to $108,000, a textbook capitulation read. Since then, BTC bounced roughly 8% off the $107,000 low. Therefore, many short-term wallets now sit on near-term gains, which often invites distribution into resistance.
Order books point to dip-buying interest
At publication time, aggregated depth on BTC/USDT showed about $32 million in bids two percent below spot versus $22 million in asks two percent above. In practice, more size waits beneath price than above it. However, a $40 million long-liquidity pocket sits around $114,000, which can act as friction as leveraged traders manage risk.
Flows add another layer. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew nearly $2 billion this week, extending a run of large creations. Meanwhile, retail wallets remain cautious, while larger investors steadily add exposure through funds and balance-sheet buys.
If bids continue to build under price, bulls can attempt a clean break through $116,000–$117,000. If that band fails again, prior lows at $112,000 and $107,000 return as levels to test.
The calendar matters. The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week with markets leaning toward rate cuts. Consequently, volatility risk is two-sided: a supportive decision could clear the supply wall and invite a quick push toward $120,000; a surprise hold could unwind recent gains. For now, the tape reads simple: liquidity is stacked near resistance, dip bids are present, and the next move likely comes on a policy headline.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $115,863, showing a slight 0.10% decline over the past 24 hours but a 4.12% gain over the past week. The market capitalization stands at roughly $2.31 trillion, with a circulating supply of 20 million BTC.
Daily trading volume reached $25.56 billion, indicating active market participation across major exchanges. The 24-hour price range fluctuated between $115,304 and $116,183, suggesting a period of short-term consolidation.
Technically, BTC is holding support near $115,300, with immediate resistance around $116,200. Short-term momentum appears neutral, with on-chain metrics showing a high proportion of profitable addresses, suggesting the market may be ready for a continuation if buying pressure increases.
Moving averages indicate stable support levels, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows the asset is not overbought, leaving room for potential upward movement. A decisive break above $116,200 could pave the way toward $118,000, while a failure to maintain support may test $114,500–$115,000.
Recent news highlights continued institutional adoption and regulatory developments. El Salvador announced plans to launch Bitcoin banks this year, following the Investment Bank Law enacted in August. Institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain strong, supporting liquidity and investor confidence.
On-chain data points to growing bullish momentum, with non-zero addresses reaching year-to-date highs and 93.6% of BTC supply in profit, reinforcing positive market sentiment despite short-term fluctuations.
