Galaxy Research has revised its year-end 2025 Bitcoin price target from $185,000 to $120,000, citing structural maturity, whale distribution, and competing macro narratives that have weakened bullish momentum. The update comes as Bitcoin trades below $100,000 for the first time since June, marking a sharp reversal after months of strength.
In the latest report titled “Bitcoin Outlook Update: Lowering 2025 YE Target to $120,000,” Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, described the move as a recalibration rather than a shift in long-term conviction. “Bitcoin’s structural investment case remains strong, but cyclical dynamics have evolved,” the note reads.
Whale Distribution, Leverage Wipeouts, and Competing Narratives
The report highlights a series of headwinds that have reshaped Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2025. Significant coin transfers from early holders to ETFs and institutional portfolios have signaled maturity in market structure but also created short-term supply pressure.
A leverage wipeout on October 10 is cited as a key event that drained liquidity and damaged market confidence. Meanwhile, competing macro themes, including AI, gold, and stablecoins, have absorbed capital that might otherwise have flowed into Bitcoin.
Retail Apathy and Strategic Delays
Galaxy’s analysts also pointed to retail apathy as a persistent drag, noting that post-2021 enthusiasm has not fully returned. When it did reappear, it was largely driven by meme coin speculation, not sustainable accumulation.
On the institutional front, the firm noted the lack of government Bitcoin purchases despite public rhetoric around the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) proposal. “The U.S. government has been very quiet on the SBR front,” the report stated, calling it a missed catalyst for broader adoption.
Entering the “Post-$100K Regime”
Despite lowering its target, Galaxy maintains that Bitcoin’s climb above six figures earlier this year marked the beginning of a “maturity era,” characterized by lower volatility, ETF-driven flows, and institutional absorption.
“The next phase for Bitcoin treasury firms will focus on revenue generation and diversification beyond accumulation,” the report concludes, adding that the path to future gains will likely be slower, but more sustainable.