Fresh data from on-chain analytics firm Santiment shows that retail fear, or “crowd FUD”, continues to serve as one of the most reliable contrarian indicators for Bitcoin.
According to Santiment’s sentiment chart, the four most negative retail sentiment days in the past seven months have all preceded major price rallies. Each time social media and trading forums reached peak pessimism, Bitcoin rebounded sharply within days or weeks.
- April 5: Panic over Trump’s new global tariffs sparked a +26.5% rally in 19 days.
- June 21: Fear of conflict between Iran, Israel, and the U.S. led to a +11.8% gain in one week.
- August 23: Retail panic over Fed policy triggered an +11.3% rise over 48 days.
- October 10: Trump’s China tariff comments caused the year’s highest negativity, followed by a +5.5% bounce in three days.
Santiment analysts say this pattern highlights how extreme negative sentiment often aligns with local bottoms, as traders capitulate and smart money re-enters. The latest data suggests the October 10 sell-off may again mark a short-term inflection point, particularly as Bitcoin stabilizes above the $112K–$115K support range.
“Historically, retail panic has signaled accumulation zones,” Santiment noted, reinforcing the idea that fear remains one of Bitcoin’s most bullish catalysts when paired with resilient on-chain structure.