Bitcoin’s sharp correction this week has reignited debate over whether the current bull cycle is nearing its end. However, cryptocurrency analyst Joao Wedson believes the long-term structure remains fully intact, and that the market is still operating within Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle.
Wedson and his research team have built what they call the Recurrence Fractal Cycle model, which has mapped Bitcoin’s behavior with notable accuracy since 2015. “Many are claiming the cycle is broken because of shifts in global liquidity,” he said, “but the data still points to a continuation rather than a collapse.”
To support his view, Wedson referenced his team’s proprietary Max Intersect SMA Model, a metric designed to identify Bitcoin’s cyclical tops. According to Wedson, the indicator has correctly predicted every all-time high in Bitcoin’s history. “It’s remarkable how consistently it aligns with previous peaks,” he explained. “The question now is whether it will pinpoint this cycle’s top as well.”
I want to be completely honest and straightforward about what I think: has the Bitcoin cycle and the market ended or not?
The first thing I want to share is a reflection on whether the 4-year BTC cycle is really repeating. We've gone through many moments, and a lot of people say… pic.twitter.com/U2wD2yqdTf
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 11, 2025
The analyst compared today’s conditions to mid-2021, when a wave of leveraged liquidations briefly disrupted markets before Bitcoin rallied to record highs later that year. He believes the current downturn may reflect a similar pattern, a liquidity reset rather than a structural breakdown.
Wedson also pointed to on-chain metrics supporting his bullish outlook. Mining fees, transaction volumes, and address growth remain stable at historically low levels, typically observed during major accumulation periods. He added that the total crypto market capitalization is still smaller than the valuation of Nvidia, emphasizing how much growth potential remains for the asset class.
“The market doesn’t end with one major liquidation,” Wedson concluded. “Historically, those moments have marked bottoms, not tops. With Bitcoin dominance rising again and long-term holders staying firm, this cycle could still have weeks, or even months, left before reaching its true peak.”