- The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals is set to decide on Grayscale’s push to turn its Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF.
- Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart indicates that August 15 could be a potential date for the court’s decision, based on historic timelines.
Timelines, Predictions, and Bitcoin’s Spot ETF Saga
Amid heightened anticipation in the crypto sector, a landmark decision is forthcoming as the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals gears up to rule on Grayscale Investments’ lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). At the core of the contention lies Grayscale’s ambition to morph its existing Bitcoin trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
James Seyffart of Bloomberg has been at the forefront of the discussion, suggesting on Twitter that a verdict could potentially be announced on August 15. While he labels this as an “educated guess,” his speculations stem from timelines observed in similar lawsuits. Yet, as he quips in exchanges with Elliott Z. Stein, a litigation analyst with Bloomberg, the exact date is more playful conjecture than pinpoint prediction.
Deep Dive: Past Lawsuits and Timelines
Scott Johnsson, a notable finance attorney with Davis Polk, offers a richer insight into the proceedings. Citing data, he underscores that “30 out of 32 cases from March ’21/’22 were resolved within 160 days of their oral arguments.” Grayscale’s current lawsuit, having been initiated 160 days prior in March 2023, falls right within this window.
Furthermore, Johnsson accentuates the significance of August as a pivotal month for District Courts. Historically, it’s during this period that a rotation of law clerks occurs, urging judges to expedite lingering decisions. In relation to Grayscale’s case, only a handful from March remain unresolved.
When to Watch?
Eric Balchunas, another analyst from Bloomberg, brings in an additional vantage point, emphasizing that the court predominantly unveils decisions around 11:00 am EST. Reflecting on Johnsson’s legal proficiency, Balchunas points out two potential decision dates: Tuesday and Friday, both scheduled for 11 am. This is consistent with the court’s tendency to announce decisions on these specific weekdays.
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At the core of this lawsuit, Grayscale contests the SEC’s June 2022 dismissal of its bid to transform its GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF. The central argument pivots on the perceived inconsistency in the SEC’s treatment of analogous investment tools. Pundits, especially from Bloomberg, are tilting the scale in favor of Grayscale’s potential triumph.
Additionally, as external reports suggest, Grayscale is advocating for the SEC to greenlight all Bitcoin spot ETF requests concurrently, striving for a balanced playing field among firms.
Despite the mounting speculations, Bitcoin’s price remains unaffected, currently hovering around $29,388.
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