According to Coinbase Institutional’s Q4 2025 “Charting Crypto: Navigating Uncertainty” report, the broader crypto outlook remains cautiously optimistic, driven by three major tailwinds the firm believes could support markets into year-end.
1. Liquidity Recovery and Monetary Easing
Coinbase highlights global liquidity as the dominant macro driver. Its proprietary Global M2 Money Supply Index, which historically leads Bitcoin performance by about 110 days, remains in a supportive phase. The firm expects two additional Federal Reserve rate cuts before year-end, a move that could redirect capital from money market funds into risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
2. Expanding Policy and Market Infrastructure
The report underscores the rapid evolution of crypto’s “plumbing.” Stablecoin supply and transaction volumes are hovering near record highs, signaling sustained on-chain usage even through volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. spot ETF ecosystem for Bitcoin and Ether continues to deepen, improving institutional access and market liquidity. Coinbase views these developments as structural, not speculative, the rails that keep capital flowing even during downturns.
3. Institutional Adoption and Treasury Demand
Coinbase identifies digital asset treasury (DAT) firms, companies holding BTC and ETH as balance-sheet assets, as a new, stabilizing source of long-term demand. This cohort now controls a growing share of circulating supply, providing consistent buying pressure. While some DAT valuations have slipped in equity markets, their crypto holdings remain largely intact, reinforcing the bid for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Overall, Coinbase maintains a “cautious but higher” bias heading into the final stretch of 2025. The combination of liquidity tailwinds, maturing infrastructure, and sustained institutional participation sets a constructive backdrop, with Bitcoin positioned to lead if these supports remain in place.
