Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 23, 2026, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said Bitcoin may be on the verge of breaking its long-standing four-year market cycle.
According to CZ, structural changes in regulation, institutional demand, and global adoption could push Bitcoin into what he described as a potential “supercycle.”
Historically, Bitcoin’s price action has followed a predictable rhythm tied to halving events, with sharp rallies followed by deep drawdowns every four years. CZ argued that this framework may no longer apply in the current market environment.
Why the Four-Year Model May Be Fading
CZ pointed to the United States as a key catalyst for change. He said the country’s increasingly pro-crypto stance could act as a signal for other major economies to follow, creating a more synchronized global adoption cycle rather than fragmented regional growth.
Another major shift is the role of institutions. Unlike previous cycles dominated by retail speculation, Bitcoin is now being absorbed through spot ETFs, long-term custodial products, and growing interest from sovereign wealth funds and central banks. CZ emphasized that this type of capital behaves differently, reducing the likelihood of violent boom-and-bust dynamics.
Regulation, once viewed as a constant threat, has also changed character. CZ noted that regulatory developments are increasingly acting as positive catalysts, providing clarity and legitimacy rather than suppressing growth.
Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong
While declining to offer short-term price targets, CZ said predicting Bitcoin’s direction over a five-to-ten-year horizon is “very easy,” reiterating his confidence in a long-term upward trend. He confirmed that he does not actively trade Bitcoin, instead maintaining a long-term holding strategy focused on BTC and BNB.
CZ also revealed that he is currently advising around a dozen governments on cryptocurrency regulation and asset tokenization, underscoring the growing role of digital assets in national financial strategies.
If Bitcoin does enter a supercycle, it would mark a fundamental shift away from the halving-driven market structure that has defined crypto for over a decade.
