- BTC trading at $124,742 after fresh ATH; market cap $2.49T, weekly gain 11.18%, YTD +33.6%, six-month +63.5% dominance.
- U.S. spot BTC ETFs posted $3.24B weekly inflows; total net >$60B, Morgan Stanley recommends 2–4% allocations as hedge.
Bitcoin reached new highs this week, with its price pushing above $123,000 after a rush of institutional inflows totaling $3.2 billion over the past week. While market sentiment appears upbeat on the surface, a set of technical and on-chain signals suggest that traders and investors should exercise caution. ETHNews analysts point to early signs that Bitcoin may be entering a topping phase, as risk indicators begin to flash.
One model, known as the Max Intersect SMA Model, has crossed $60,140 for only the third time in Bitcoin’s history. Historically, this metric has aligned with previous cycle peaks in 2017 and 2021.
Our most precise Bitcoin top indicator has now crossed $60K.
Once the Smart Model (blue line) hits $69K, it will flash a sell signal, calling the exact cycle top.
Many are already bearish and doubtful, while others believe $125K will be the true ATH of this cycle.So, what do… https://t.co/fwIFlyBPya pic.twitter.com/wp02gYDdLt
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 5, 2025
The model currently projects a ceiling near $138,000, yet the fact that price is hovering just below its most recent all-time high at $125,725 has traders on edge. According to Alphafractal’s founder, Joao Wedson, the Smart Model’s proximity to the $69,000 trigger level suggests that caution is warranted as further gains could prompt a correction.
On-chain data reinforce the defensive mood among market participants. The Futures Taker CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) metric currently signals a dominance of sell-side activity. In practice, this means more traders are betting against further upward movement in Bitcoin, leading to a slight cooling in bullish momentum.
The NVT Ratio, which gauges network activity relative to price, holds at 31, suggesting a neutral stance. In parallel, data from CryptoQuant show that the number of unspent transaction outputs in loss has dropped sharply, which often leads to profit-taking as more investors seek to cash out gains.
Not all Bitcoin holders are behaving the same way
While high-net-worth investors and institutions appear to be accumulating, retail participation is waning. Wallets holding under 100 BTC have declined to new lows for this cycle, a trend not seen in earlier rallies. This retreat can be traced to Bitcoin’s elevated price, which now places entry beyond the reach of many smaller traders.
Meanwhile, larger players have stepped in, with wallets in the 100–1,000 BTC bracket adding over 10,000 coins per day in recent weeks. The “sharks” alone added 124,000 BTC on October 6, confirming that institutional demand is not slowing down.
Exchange-traded funds have reshaped Bitcoin’s investor base. Since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, institutional holdings have climbed above 620,000 BTC—valued at around $76.9 billion.
Last week, ETFs saw $3.24 billion in net inflows, the second-largest on record. Such trends show that the present cycle is driven by large players, rather than by the retail crowd that helped define earlier bull runs.
The transformation of Bitcoin’s market structure has brought stability at the cost of reducing retail-driven volatility. As institutions and whales take center stage, the market grows less prone to sudden sell-offs. Should these conditions persist, Bitcoin could push beyond its current highs.
Yet for traders, the signals are clear: as major indicators approach historical thresholds and profit-taking increases, the next move will likely depend on whether the institutional bid remains strong or if caution prevails.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $124,742, marking a 0.99% daily increase, with a market capitalization of $2.49 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $55.1 billion. Over the past week, BTC has risen 11.18%, maintaining its strong upward trajectory after setting a new all-time high of $125,782 earlier this week. Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up 33.6%, and its six-month performance shows an impressive 63.5% gain, reinforcing its role as the dominant asset in the crypto market.
Institutional participation continues to accelerate. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.24 billion in inflows last week, the second-highest since January 2024, bringing total net inflows to over $60 billion. This capital influx underscores growing confidence among asset managers and corporate treasuries.
In a recent report, Morgan Stanley labeled Bitcoin “digital gold,” advising clients to allocate 2–4% of their portfolios to BTC as a hedge against inflation and global monetary instability. However, the bank also cautioned that volatility remains a defining characteristic of the asset.
In the corporate sector, ZOOZ Power Ltd. disclosed a $40 million purchase of 329 BTC, raising its total holdings to 854 BTC valued above $100 million. This aligns with a broader trend of companies and funds expanding their Bitcoin reserves amid expectations of a prolonged bullish cycle. Additionally, crypto fund inflows reached record levels of $5.95 billion, as reported by Cointelegraph, indicating institutional demand even amid global market uncertainty.
From a technical standpoint, BTC maintains strong support near $122,000–$123,000, while resistance is set at $126,000–$127,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 68, suggesting mildly overbought conditions but not yet signaling exhaustion. Analysts from TradingView predict that a clean breakout above $127,000 could propel BTC toward $135,000–$140,000 in the near term.
