Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has issued one of his most cautionary outlooks yet on Bitcoin, arguing that the asset is entering a “post-inflation deflation” phase that fundamentally changes its risk profile.
After years of maintaining a constructive long-term view, McGlone now advises investors to “sell the rallies” in 2026.
His shift reflects a belief that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like a disruptive hedge, but rather as a leveraged component of a crowded speculative ecosystem that is vulnerable to a broader macro reset.
Why McGlone Says the “Bitcoin Trade” Has Changed
McGlone argues that the macro backdrop which fueled Bitcoin’s explosive gains after 2020 has faded. In his view, liquidity-driven speculation is giving way to deflationary pressures, leaving risk assets exposed.
He points to a growing divergence between Bitcoin and traditional safe havens. While gold continues to register new highs, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum, a signal McGlone interprets as gold “front-running” a broader market drawdown rather than confirming crypto strength.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities remains elevated. Instead of acting as an alternative financial system hedge, McGlone sees it increasingly moving in lockstep with stock markets, making it vulnerable to the same recessionary forces that typically pressure high-beta assets.
Key Price Levels McGlone Is Watching
McGlone outlines several critical scenarios for 2026, all skewed to the downside.
In an extreme outcome, he warns that a “reversion to the mean” could push Bitcoin toward $10,000, a level he describes as “chartically normal” when viewed against pre-mania trading ranges. While he acknowledges this as a tail risk, he believes it cannot be dismissed in a deflationary shock.
A more moderate scenario involves a pullback toward $50,000, particularly if equity markets remain volatile but avoid a full-scale collapse. Even in this case, McGlone views such a move as consistent with historical corrections following speculative excess.
On the upside, he sees $100,000 as heavy resistance, arguing that Bitcoin remains structurally vulnerable unless it can decisively reclaim and hold above that psychological threshold.
A Broader “Wealth-Effect” Reversal
Beyond price levels, McGlone frames his outlook within a larger macro narrative. He expects a recession driven by the unwinding of speculative assets, drawing comparisons to periods preceding the 1929 market peak and the 2008 financial crisis. In this context, he believes digital assets could amplify, rather than hedge, a downturn.
As a result, McGlone favors a defensive posture for 2026. He highlights U.S. Treasurys and cash as preferred allocations in a deflationary environment, arguing that markets are in the early stages of a purge, not merely pausing within an ongoing bull cycle.
Whether or not his most bearish targets materialize, McGlone’s message is clear: the macro regime that once supported Bitcoin’s explosive upside may be shifting, and investors should prepare for a very different market dynamic ahead.
