According to crypto analyst Joao Wedson, Bitcoin’s current market structure is breaking from all previous cycle patterns. In a post titled “The Bitcoin Top That Never Came (Yet)”, Wedson highlights how this time, euphoria never arrived, a stark contrast to earlier bull markets where retail mania often marked the peak.
In prior all-time highs, Bitcoin surged rapidly above key resistance levels, driven by emotional buying and speculative hype, before collapsing just as fast. “Thousands of investors got trapped at the top,” Wedson noted, referring to the short-lived blow-off peaks of 2017 and 2021.
The Bitcoin Top That Never Came (Yet)
Unlike past cycles, this time few people bought the top out of euphoria.
In previous ATHs, Bitcoin barely had time to breathe above new highs — it would surge with pure excitement… and then crash just as fast.
The result?
Thousands of… pic.twitter.com/8AEZ5mrZhW— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 28, 2025
Now, the market looks far more mature. Bitcoin has spent nearly a year trading above $100,000, consolidating in what Wedson describes as “patient range-testing” rather than mania. The real surprise, he says, is that true euphoria hasn’t even started yet, suggesting that the final leg of the cycle could still be ahead.
“In previous cycles, euphoria came before consolidation. This time, consolidation came before euphoria, and that changes everything,” Wedson wrote.
Charts shared by Alphractal support this claim, showing that the number of Bitcoin days spent at a profit remains historically moderate, despite prices sitting near record highs. In past cycles, those metrics had already spiked sharply before market tops formed.
If Wedson’s thesis holds true, Bitcoin could be entering a late-stage consolidation phase that precedes an eventual euphoric breakout, one that might redefine how cycle tops are identified in the post-ETF, institutional era.