- 44% of Bitcoin’s returns have historically occurred within the 12 months post-halving.
- Despite short-term market challenges, optimism surges for the 2024 Bitcoin halving event.
In a backdrop of global uncertainties and increasing tensions in the Middle East, the crypto world is shining a spotlight on the promising future of Bitcoin, especially as the next halving event approaches. This event, which is forecasted to take place in late April or early May 2024, has many in the crypto community buzzing. The recent tweet by Charles Edwards, founder of the Capriole Fund, suggests an intriguing pattern. He indicated that:
Are you ready for 2024?
44% of all of Bitcoin's returns have occurred in the 12 months after each Halving.
Including the extra 6 months in 2017 (red here) captures 150% of Bitcoin's all time returns!
In other words, all of Bitcoin's cycle returns can be expected to occur soon. pic.twitter.com/50oVdBuiUx
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) October 8, 2023
Adding fuel to the growing halving enthusiasm, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao announced the initiation of a halving countdown on the platform. Reflecting on the past, he mentioned that while immediate post-halving price surges might not be evident, the following year typically witnesses Bitcoin reaching several all-time highs. On-chain analytics have also pointed towards a positive shift, with substantial exchange outflows and technical patterns suggesting readiness for another upward move.
The Current Landscape: A Mix of Optimism and Caution
However, every silver lining has a cloud, and the crypto market is no exception. While the long-term outlook seems incredibly positive, projecting towards late 2024 and beyond, the immediate forecast appears murky. A recent analysis by trader “CrediBULL Crypto” highlighted potential resistance at higher price levels, leading to speculations that Bitcoin might retest the $26,500 mark before any upward trajectory.
At the present moment, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $27,943, narrowly missing the $28,100 mark during the past weekend.