Bitcoin’s Seasonal Surge: Is $35K on the Horizon?

• Bitcoin’s historic performance indicates a trend of increased valuation in July, supporting the potential of a price surge targeting $35K.
• Institutional developments, such as Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF application and the launch of Fidelity-backed EDX Markets, could fuel this predicted surge.

In the unpredictable yet exciting world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin continues to dominate headlines. This time, the focus is on the potential for a bullish surge targeting a value of $35,000. Currently hovering above $30,000 after a slight correction from its 12-month high just above $31,000, Bitcoin maintains a tenuous yet resilient foothold.

Crypto market observers have noted a consistent trend over the past decade, with Bitcoin experiencing an average increase of more than 11% each July. This ‘seasonal surge’ is well-documented, and the numbers back it up. Seven of the past ten years have seen positive returns in July, including significant gains of 27%, 20%, and 24% in the last three years.

However, it is worth noting that this expected rise doesn’t signal an ongoing trend throughout the year. According to Markus Thielen, Head of Research at Matrixport, a strong July often precedes a more lukewarm August and a selloff in September. Despite this cyclic volatility, Bitcoin’s price could reach an estimated $45,000 by the end of 2023.

Aside from historical data, other influential factors are at play. Blackrock’s recent application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and the launch of Fidelity-backed EDX Markets are poised to provide the necessary momentum for Bitcoin’s projected surge. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas predicts a high probability of Blackrock receiving the SEC’s approval, which could significantly impact Bitcoin’s market dynamics.

Another heavyweight in the crypto sphere, Grayscale, is also in the limelight. Despite their initial application to convert Bitcoin Trust shares into a spot ETF being rejected, they remain engaged in a robust legal battle with the SEC. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Elliot Stein suggests a 70% chance of Grayscale triumphing over the SEC, which could have far-reaching implications for the crypto market.

However, amid these optimistic forecasts, caution is advised. The relative strength index’s decline from the overbought region towards the midline suggests unfavorable market forces that could impact the expected rally. Thus, maintaining support at $30,000 is crucial for resuming the uptrend. If Bitcoin’s value falls beyond this critical threshold, traders may have to rely on the confluence support formed by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $27,690.

For those considering long positions in Bitcoin, it’s prudent to wait for a trend reversal confirmation above $30,000, and especially above the 12-month high of $31,000. From this point, investors could prepare for a potential Bitcoin price rally targeting $35,000.