Recent analysis, shared by CryptoQuant, follows multi-indicator using 14 metrics across price action, derivatives, and on-chain data, all visualized on the weekly Bitcoin chart on Binance.
The Price Action Sequence
The chart annotates the current cycle chronologically from the Fourth Halving in mid-2024 through March 2026. Following the halving, the first post-halving rally expanded the Anchored VWAP bands significantly, pushing price far above the Fourth Halving VWAP and leaving it as a mid-range reference. During the second post-halving rally, weekly closing prices near the upper band of the original Anchored VWAP acted as a reference for identifying potential market tops, which is where the cycle high formed.
The deterioration followed a specific sequence. Price first closed below the 50-period simple moving average on the weekly chart, marking the loss of a key trend reference. The Fourth Halving Anchored VWAP, which had previously acted as support alongside a positively sloped moving average, held a second time but without the same structural backing. The moving average had flattened. Buyers defended the level, but the conviction behind that defense had weakened.
The break came when price closed below the Fourth Halving Anchored VWAP, the weekly moving average with a slightly downward slope, and the Anchored VWAP from the 2025 all-time high simultaneously. All three levels, each of which had previously acted as support at different points in the cycle, gave way in the same window. A lower high had already formed before that breakdown, confirming the shift in structure. Sellers were dominating.
What On-Chain Data Confirmed
The February 2026 drop produced a specific set of on-chain readings that Famá identifies as confluent with the price action deterioration. Supply in loss reached 9.5 million BTC. Realized loss registered at 6 billion USD. NUPL came in at positive 0.11, a reading consistent with a market near the boundary between profit and loss at the aggregate level. NUPL for long-term holders read positive 0.39 while short-term holders registered negative 0.50, reflecting the distribution of pain concentrated in more recent buyers. UPR for new whales came in at negative 0.31, indicating that large holders who accumulated more recently are underwater. Old whales registered positive 0.51, meaning longer-term large holders remain in profit. Miner whales holding over 1,000 BTC showed a UPR of positive 0.08, a marginally profitable reading for the largest mining entities.
The confluence Famá identifies is between the structural weakness in price action described in the chart annotations and the on-chain conditions of holders during the same window. Both layers weakened simultaneously. That overlap is what gives the bearish reading its analytical weight.
What the Cycle Framework Suggests
Famá notes that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains broadly consistent with prior patterns. In both the current cycle and its predecessor, confluence between price action weakness and deteriorating on-chain holder conditions appeared at similar structural points. That consistency does not guarantee a specific outcome, but it places the current setup within a recognizable historical framework rather than treating it as an anomaly.
The on-chain data does not show capitulation-level stress. As covered in earlier reporting this week, unrealized loss levels remain well below the approximately 60% threshold historically associated with cycle bottoms. What the Famá analysis adds is the price structure context around those on-chain readings, showing that the weakening of holder conditions and the breakdown of key price levels arrived together, which is the combination that has defined corrective phases in prior cycles.
