Bitcoin’s sharp decline this week may not be the warning sign traders fear, it could, in fact, be the prelude to a rebound.
Market analyst and economist Timothy Peterson highlighted that drops of more than 5% in October are historically rare, having occurred only four times in the past decade. In three of those four instances, Bitcoin posted significant gains within a week.
According to Peterson’s data, similar drawdowns took place on October 24, 2017, October 11, 2018, October 23, 2019, and October 21, 2021. Within seven days of those events, Bitcoin rebounded 16%, 4%, and 21%, respectively, with only 2021 showing a slight 3% dip afterward. That pattern, he suggests, indicates that this year’s October drop could again set the stage for a recovery.
Drops of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare. This has happened only 4 times in the past 10 years.
Oct 24 2017
Oct 11 2018
Oct 23 2019
Oct 21 2021What happened next? 7 days later bitcoin was
2017: up 16%
2018: up 4%
2019: up 21%
2021: down -3% pic.twitter.com/mbFs19RbwL— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 10, 2025
Supporting this outlook, data from CoinGlass shows that October has historically delivered Bitcoin’s second-best average monthly return, trailing only November. Since 2013, the month’s median performance has hovered around +20%, earning it the nickname “Uptober” among crypto traders.
While short-term volatility remains elevated, Peterson argues that these shakeouts are consistent with Bitcoin’s historical rhythm. “Every major October correction in the past decade has been followed by renewed strength,” he noted. If history rhymes once more, the next move for Bitcoin could be upward rather than down.
