After a rare red October, Bitcoin is entering November, historically its most bullish month, with multiple technical and macro indicators aligning for a potential breakout.
According to data shared by analysts including Merlijn The Trader, Bitcoin has now spent 55 months compressing within an ascending wedge, the longest consolidation in its history. The last major breakout, which came after 30 months of compression in late 2020, ignited Bitcoin’s parabolic rally to new highs.
“This time the wedge is tighter, the base is stronger,” Merlijn noted. “One breakout candle… and the rocket ignites.”
Bitcoin is currently trading around $109,000, consolidating just below its prior highs. The 9-month simple moving average remains intact, a technical foundation that has historically preceded major upward extensions once resistance gives way.
Rate Cuts Set the Stage for Another Post-FOMC Rally
Adding to bullish sentiment, Merlijn highlighted what he calls the “Second Rate Cut Effect.”
In 2024, Bitcoin’s last vertical rally began immediately after the Fed’s second rate cut. With the October 2025 FOMC decision marking another second cut, traders are watching for history to repeat.
“In 2024, Bitcoin exploded right after the second cut,” he wrote. “Now we’re here again. Same setup. Same liquidity. This isn’t a coincidence, it’s your warning.”
The correlation between rate cuts and risk asset strength has strengthened as liquidity conditions improve. While the Fed’s October move sparked initial volatility, analysts suggest the broader impact often lags by several weeks, setting up November as a potentially catalytic month for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
November: Bitcoin’s Most Profitable Month on Record
Data shared by Bitcoin Archive and Ash Crypto reinforces the seasonal trend:
- Bitcoin’s average November return since 2013 stands at +42.51%, making it the most profitable month in BTC’s history.
- Historically, November outperforms all other months, followed by April and December.
As Ash Crypto noted, “Historically, November has usually been the best month for Bitcoin. Let’s pray for a pump.”
Outlook: All Eyes on the Breakout Candle
With technical compression at a 55-month extreme, Fed easing reintroduced into the macro narrative, and seasonal tailwinds aligning, Bitcoin may be approaching what traders describe as a “launch window.”
If the pattern holds, a breakout above $112,000 could confirm a vertical leg similar to late 2020’s move, when Bitcoin tripled within months.
For now, the message from analysts is simple: the setup is complete, liquidity is primed, and November’s track record speaks for itself.