- Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, predicts a single Bitcoin may be worth $1 billion by 2038, relying on Metcalfe’s Law and his demand model.
- He suggests that the widening gap between his demand model and the stock-to-flow model post 2030 could be attributed to changes in the dollar’s value.
In an ambitious forecast, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, postulates that the value of one Bitcoin could skyrocket to $1 billion by 2038. To substantiate his claim, Timmer employs a 4-hour BTC/USD chart integrating the stock-to-flow model with his proprietary demand model.
Timmer’s proposition hinges on Metcalfe’s Law, a principle stipulating that a network’s value grows geometrically as its user base expands linearly. By extrapolation, this suggests Bitcoin’s utility value is set to supersede its operational network, which includes the entirety of buyers, sellers, exchanges, and ATMs. Furthermore, it includes the array of participating retailers—directly and indirectly—major corporations like the Dallas Mavericks and AT&T, and a cluster of insurers, banks, and small businesses.
His unique demand model demonstrates a slow growth trajectory when juxtaposed with the stock-to-flow combination supply model. According to Timmer’s model, Bitcoin should touch the $1 million mark by 2030. Conversely, the stock-to-flow model projects a price bracket of $1 million to $10 million for the same period.
Historically, Timmer’s demand model tends to denote the price floor, while the stock-to-flow model appears more aligned with the price peak. A notable divergence between both models becomes apparent post 2030. One of the proposed explanations for this growing disparity is the fluctuating value of the dollar, although this hypothesis isn’t immutable.
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Timmer elaborates on the shifting dollar value in relation to other assets. For instance, $1 invested in stocks in the 18th century equates to roughly $4 billion in today’s money. This implies that today’s $1 million could transform into $1 billion in a span of two decades.
The dollar’s value, subject to depreciation over extended periods, yields diminished purchasing power for the same nominal sum. This depreciation explains why what was considered a considerable amount in the past seems significantly less by contemporary standards. Timmer’s predictions, though speculative and untested, find company in similar high-reaching forecasts, such as Deutsche Bank’s prediction that Bitcoin will rule the roost by 2030.
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