According to a new report from 10x Research, Bitcoin’s prolonged consolidation around the $110,000 range is nearing its conclusion. Analysts emphasize that this phase isn’t just a product of market cycles, but of capital dynamics, specifically, how much new demand is entering to offset ongoing legacy holder selling.
Unlike gold, whose price often tracks macro expectations such as interest-rate policy, Bitcoin’s performance hinges on net inflows versus outflows. When fresh demand slows while older wallets continue to distribute, equilibrium forms, creating the kind of tight volatility seen over the past several months.
The firm notes that this balance has capped upside momentum since mid-year, despite spot ETF inflows and positive sentiment across institutions.
Digital Asset Treasuries Lose Momentum
10x Research identifies one key reason for the muted action: Digital Asset Treasury companies, led by firms like MicroStrategy (now Strategy Inc.), are reaching the limits of their current buying power.
Earlier this year, Bitcoin’s volatility was expected to contract as the effects of the U.S. GENIUS Act faded during Congress’s summer recess. That slowdown, combined with fewer share placements and reduced corporate Bitcoin purchases, created what 10x calls an “air pocket” for the market.
Strategy Inc.’s aggressive accumulation has now slowed to tens of millions rather than billions, shrinking its net asset value (NAV) premium to just 1.2x over Bitcoin. This marks a sharp compression from earlier highs when institutional demand appeared unstoppable.
As a result, the firm concludes, Bitcoin’s upside remains capped until either corporate buyers regain access to capital or new ETF inflows offset the treasury slowdown.
Legacy Wallets Quietly Selling into ETF Demand
The second, and arguably more structural, force holding Bitcoin in range is the steady selling from legacy wallets, many of which contain billions of dollars in older coins. According to 10x Research, these wallets have been offloading just enough BTC to match ETF inflows, creating a self-stabilizing effect.
This pattern was first flagged in 10x’s June and July reports, including “Who’s Actually Impacting the Bitcoin Price?” and “Why $8.6B in Dormant Bitcoin Just Moved.” While it prevents a full-scale price collapse, it also ensures that ETF demand alone cannot spark a breakout.
The firm notes that this distribution trend has been mirrored in Glassnode data, where whales (holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) continue accumulating while mega whales (10,000+ BTC) reduce exposure, a pattern consistent with large-scale redistribution.
Volatility Compression Creates Opportunity
Despite short-lived volatility spikes, including the recent flash crash, Bitcoin has remained mid-range. 10x Research points out that selling volatility has been one of the most profitable strategies in recent months as price action stabilizes between $100,000 and $120,000.
The analysts expect that once legacy distribution slows and treasury inflows resume, Bitcoin could reignite its next leg higher. Timing this shift, they argue, depends on tracking net new inflows rather than traditional macro indicators.
Outlook: Consolidation Ending, Patience Needed
10x Research concludes that Bitcoin’s “big consolidation won’t last forever.” The report suggests that with both whale accumulation and mega-whale distribution nearing equilibrium, volatility could soon expand again, likely setting the stage for a major directional move.
As the firm summarizes, “This isn’t about cycles, it’s about capital. When the inflow impulse returns, Bitcoin’s range will break, and traders should be ready.”
