Bitcoin’s recent price pullback has sparked debate among traders, but leading market analysts argue that the correction is part of a broader macro narrative, not a sign of weakness. New insights from Jamie Coutts, Merlijn The Trader, and Daan Crypto Trades suggest the digital asset could be preparing for another leg higher, with technical and macro indicators aligning in its favor.
Liquidity Tightens but Outlook Remains Bullish
According to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Jamie Coutts, Bitcoin’s dip is tied to the dollar’s rebound, which is tightening global liquidity. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently retesting the 100–101 zone, a key resistance area after one of its steepest declines in years. Coutts notes that positioning in dollar futures had become overcrowded on the short side, making a bounce “always likely.”
Despite short-term volatility, Coutts maintains a bullish base case. He argues that “liquidity tailwinds and an improving business cycle keep the outlook for risk assets bullish into mid-2026.” His chart data shows that the Global Liquidity Index remains elevated, historically a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin and other risk-on assets.
2019’s “Fake Top” Pattern Returns
Trader Merlijn The Trader sees echoes of Bitcoin’s 2019 rally, where a supposed “blow-off top” trapped bearish traders before a 70% surge. He suggests the same setup is emerging in 2025, calling it “a different scale, same psychology.” His analysis implies that disbelief could vanish “in one candle” if the pattern repeats.
In a separate post, Merlijn highlighted Bitcoin’s correlation with gold, noting that gold’s breakout to record highs has historically preceded Bitcoin’s parabolic moves. “If the pattern repeats,” he wrote, “$160,000 BTC is next.”
Key Support Levels Define the Short-Term View
Meanwhile, Daan Crypto Trades emphasized that Bitcoin remains in an uptrend but is consolidating beneath diagonal resistance after its recent all-time high sweep. He identifies $120,000 as the key level to hold. Losing that support could send the price down to the $114,000–$115,000 range, but a breakout above resistance could trigger another leg higher.
“The trend is up,” Daan noted, “just have to look out for where the higher low is made now.”
Macro and Market Cycles Align
Across the board, analysts agree that macro factors – especially global liquidity trends and dollar strength, are driving Bitcoin’s movements more than short-term speculation. With liquidity improving and risk appetite returning, multiple indicators suggest that Bitcoin could be setting up for its next major impulse phase, echoing the 2019 rally but on a far grander scale.