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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Has Ended as ETF Demand Takes Control, According to CryptoQuant

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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared a detailed data briefing revealing how Bitcoin’s market structure has evolved beyond traditional four-year cycles, with ETFs, institutional flows, and miner expansion now driving the ecosystem.

According to Ju, the average cost basis for Bitcoin holders is $55,900, putting the average wallet up roughly 93%. Realized capitalization has grown by $8 billion this week, signaling continued inflows even as prices hover near $110,000. “Price hasn’t gone up because of selling pressure, not because demand was weak,” Ju explained.

Data shows new inflows are concentrated among ETFs, miners, and Bitcoin treasury firms, while long-term whales sit on ~155% gains. ETFs and custodial wallets have been the largest accumulators, holding an average cost basis of $112,000.

Despite the recent correction, leverage in Bitcoin perpetual futures remains high, while the network hashrate hit a record 5.96 million ASICs online, a bullish indicator of miner confidence. Meanwhile, unrealized profits among whales remain moderate, suggesting the market has not yet reached euphoric conditions.

Ju concluded that Bitcoin’s demand is now primarily driven by ETFs and MicroStrategy, both of which have recently slowed accumulation. He noted that a recovery in these two channels could reignite momentum, but with liquidity patterns now fragmented, “it’s unlikely Bitcoin will ever follow the same cyclical pattern again.”

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Mishal Ali
Mishal Ali
Mishal Ali is a passionate crypto journalist with over five years of experience in finance and cryptocurrency reporting. She has worked with renowned platforms like TronWeekly, delivering in-depth market insights and industry updates. She also runs personal blogs to explore these topics further. In her free time, Mishal loves watching movies and staying inspired through creative storytelling.
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