- Microsoft’s Majorana 1 chip enables million-qubit systems, risking Bitcoin’s encryption by 2030 without quantum-resistant upgrades.
- River warns 5.9 million BTC ($400B+) face exposure if quantum tech scales to hundreds of millions of qubits.
Microsoft’s development of a quantum computing chip has intensified discussions about Bitcoin’s vulnerability to advanced technologies. The Majorana 1 chip, revealed this week, employs topological superconductivity—a newly identified physical phenomenon—to potentially support one million qubits, the basic units of quantum computing.
Investment firm River warns this progress could shorten the timeline for quantum systems to compromise Bitcoin’s encryption.
Quantum computing currently lacks real-world applications, but Microsoft’s strides in stabilizing qubits signal progress toward functionality. River states a one-million-qubit system, if operational, could decode Bitcoin addresses within days or weeks through persistent attacks.
Introducing Majorana 1—the world’s first quantum processor powered by topological qubits, featuring a new state of matter. This breakthrough marks a significant step toward scalable quantum computing. Learn more: https://t.co/CoxjyQWkSB #QuantumReady pic.twitter.com/mnVi2ZgQRo
— Azure Quantum (@MSFTQuantum) February 19, 2025
Microsoft predicts such systems may materialize by 2030. Should quantum capabilities expand to hundreds of millions of qubits, approximately 5.9 million BTC—worth over $400 billion—could face exposure.
Google’s Willow chip recently sparked similar concerns, though analysts dismissed immediate risks due to the high qubit requirements. Microsoft’s advancement, however, narrows the gap between theoretical threats and tangible risks. Bitcoin’s security relies on cryptographic algorithms vulnerable to quantum brute-force attacks.
Developers have explored upgraded encryption methods, but adoption challenges persist. River emphasizes that preemptive upgrades are essential to mitigate future breaches, noting delays could jeopardize assets worth billions.
Engineering obstacles, however, may slow quantum progress. Microsoft’s projections assume rapid scaling, yet hardware stability and error correction remain unaddressed. Current quantum systems operate below 1,000 qubits, far from the million needed for Bitcoin attacks.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s decentralized decision-making process complicates swift protocol changes. This tension highlights a broader race: evolving technology versus adaptive security.
While immediate risks are minimal, the next decade could challenge Bitcoin’s defenses. Stakeholders must weigh preparations for distant threats against current priorities.
The network’s ability to adapt may determine its survival in a quantum-powered future. As research accelerates, the clock ticks for Bitcoin to reinforce its foundations—or risk obsolescence.
